ArticleEpidemiology and infection2025
Impact of temperatures on malaria incidence in vulnerable regions of Pakistan: empirical evidence and future projections.
Article in Epidemiology and infection, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 6 papers.
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Who cites it
6 citing papers in PubMed.
- Malaria Epidemiology andTropical medicine and infectious disease · 2026Article
- A Topographic Analysis of Malaria Transmission - Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan, 2019-2022.China CDC weekly · 2026Article
- Malaria in the 21st Century: Global Disease Burden, Epidemiological Insights, and Strategic Control Approaches.Biology · 2026Review
- Seasonal Climate Drivers and Immunohematological Profiles of Malaria in Rohingya Refugee Camps, Bangladesh: A 4-Year Repeated Cross-Sectional Study.Journal of parasitology research · 2026Article
- Lagged effect of temperature and rainfall on malaria incidence in Colombia (2013-2023): An approach with Bayesian spatiotemporal adjustment.PLOS global public health · 2026Article
- Fighting malaria in Shangla District, Pakistan: insight into epidemiology, risk factors, and strategic control measures (2020-2024).Malaria journal · 2025Article
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Abstract
Malaria remains a major health challenge in developing countries, with climate change intensifying its impact. Pakistan is among the most vulnerable nations. This study examines the relationship between temperature and malaria cases in two highly affected districts, Bannu and Lakki Marwat, to inform climate-adaptive interventions.We analyzed monthly malaria cases (2014-2022) from the Integrated Vector Control/Malaria Control Program in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, combined with gridded meteorological data from Copernicus ERA5-Land. Time-series analysis using distributed lag nonlinear models and quasi-Poisson regression was applied to assess the associations.The findings suggest that as temperatures exceed 22.4°C, malaria transmission increases by 9 to 10% for every 1°C rise in both districts. In Bannu, up to 39.8% of reported malaria cases could be attributed to heat, while in Lakki Marwat, 54.1% of cases were attributable to heat. Under high emission scenarios, heat-related malaria cases could increase by 0.8 to 3.5% by the 2060s. Relationship between temperature and malaria transmission is complex and is influenced by environmental factors such as precipitation and humidity.Given Pakistan's limited healthcare infrastructure, addressing climate-driven malaria risks is urgent. Recent severe floods and malaria surges highlight the need for climate adaptation measures and strengthened healthcare systems to enhance community resilience.
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