Evidence map›Paper›PMID 39881133›Full record

ArticleNature communications2025

Strength and durability of indirect protection against SARS-CoV-2 infection through vaccine and infection-acquired immunity.

Sophia T Tan, Isabel Rodríguez-Barraquer, Ada T Kwan, Seth Blumberg, Hailey J Park, Justine Hutchinson, David Leidner, Joseph A Lewnard, David Sears, Nathan C Lo

Abstract read
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in Nature communications, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 7 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
7citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

7 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Observational
  2. Review
  3. Article
  4. Article
  5. Article
  6. Review
  7. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

10 authors.

Sophia T TanDivision of Infectious Diseases and Geographic Medicine, Department of Medicine, Stanford University, Stanford, USA.ORCID https://orcid.org/0009-0000-5421-4627
Isabel Rodríguez-BarraquerDivision of HIV, Infectious Diseases, and Global Medicine, Department of Medicine, University of California, San Francisco, CA, USA.
Ada T KwanDivision of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, Department of Medicine, University of California, San Francisco, CA, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-4889-9433
Seth BlumbergF.I. Proctor Foundation, University of California, San Francisco, CA, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-5495-4238
Hailey J ParkDivision of Infectious Diseases and Geographic Medicine, Department of Medicine, Stanford University, Stanford, USA.
Justine HutchinsonCalifornia Correctional Health Care Services, Elk Grove, CA, USA.
David LeidnerCalifornia Department of Corrections and Rehabilitation, Elk Grove, CA, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-3815-8279
Joseph A LewnardDivision of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, University of California, Berkeley, CA, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-8505-8839
David SearsDivision of Infectious Diseases, Department of Medicine, University of California, San Francisco, CA, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-3854-6482
Nathan C LoDivision of Infectious Diseases and Geographic Medicine, Department of Medicine, Stanford University, Stanford, USA. Nathan.Lo@stanford.edu.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-5407-2005

Funding

MUTIDISCIPLINARY TRAINING PROGRAM IN LUNG DISEASEST32HL007185 · NHLBI · UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, SAN FRANCISCO · PI David J Erle, LAURENCE HUANG · 1985 to 2026
$24.6M
Real-time predictive modeling for public health departments to control infectious diseasesDP2AI170485 · NIAID · UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, SAN FRANCISCO · PI Nathan Lo · 2022 to 2026
$2.3M
NHLBI NIH HHS T32 HL007185NIAID NIH HHS DP2 AI170485NIAID NIH HHS L30 AI171975U.S. Department of Health & Human Services | National Institutes of Health (NIH) DP2AI170485
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Early investigation revealed a reduced risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection among social contacts of COVID-19 vaccinated individuals, referred to as indirect protection. However, indirect protection from SARS-CoV-2 infection-acquired immunity and its comparative strength and durability to vaccine-derived indirect protection in the current epidemiologic context of high levels of vaccination, prior infection, and novel variants are not well characterized. Here, we show that both vaccine-derived and infection-acquired immunity independently yield indirect protection to close social contacts with key differences in their strength and waning. Analyzing anonymized SARS-CoV-2 surveillance data from 9,625 residents in California state prisons from December 2021 to December 2022, we find that vaccine-derived indirect protection against Omicron SARS-CoV-2 infection is strongest within three months of COVID-19 vaccination [30% (95% confidence interval: 20-38%)] with subsequent modest protection. Infection-acquired immunity provides 38% (24-50%) indirect protection for 6 months after SARS-CoV-2 infection, with moderate indirect protection persisting for over one year. Variant-targeted vaccines (bivalent formulation including Omicron subvariants BA.4/BA.5) confer strong indirect protection for at least three months [40% (3-63%)]. These results demonstrate that both vaccine-derived and infection-acquired immunity can reduce SARS-CoV-2 transmission which is important for understanding long-term transmission dynamics and can guide public health intervention, especially in high-risk environments such as prisons.

Indexed as

Adaptive ImmunityCOVID-19COVID-19 VaccinesSARS-CoV-2AdultAntibodies, ViralCaliforniaFemaleHumansMaleMiddle AgedVaccinationYoung AdultAntibodies, ViralCOVID-19 Vaccines

Identifiers

PMID39881133
PMCPMC11779853

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.