Evidence map›Paper›PMID 39880868›Full record

ArticleScientific reports2025

Leveraging survival analysis and machine learning for accurate prediction of breast cancer recurrence and metastasis.

Shahd M Noman, Youssef M Fadel, Mayar T Henedak, Nada A Attia, Malak Essam, Sarah Elmaasarawii, Fayrouz A Fouad, Esraa G Eltasawi, Walid Al-Atabany

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Scientific reports, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 16 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
16citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

16 citing papers in PubMed.

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  13. A pan-cancer multi-omicFrontiers in artificial intelligence · 2026
    Article
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

9 authors.

Shahd M Noman *Center for Informatics Science (CIS), School of Information Technology and Computer Science, Nile University, 26th of July Corridor, Sheikh Zayed City, Giza, 12588, Egypt. sh.fekry@nu.edu.eg.
Youssef M Fadel *Center for Informatics Science (CIS), School of Information Technology and Computer Science, Nile University, 26th of July Corridor, Sheikh Zayed City, Giza, 12588, Egypt.
Mayar T Henedak *Center for Informatics Science (CIS), School of Information Technology and Computer Science, Nile University, 26th of July Corridor, Sheikh Zayed City, Giza, 12588, Egypt.
Nada A AttiaCenter for Informatics Science (CIS), School of Information Technology and Computer Science, Nile University, 26th of July Corridor, Sheikh Zayed City, Giza, 12588, Egypt.
Malak EssamCenter for Informatics Science (CIS), School of Information Technology and Computer Science, Nile University, 26th of July Corridor, Sheikh Zayed City, Giza, 12588, Egypt.
Sarah ElmaasarawiiCenter for Informatics Science (CIS), School of Information Technology and Computer Science, Nile University, 26th of July Corridor, Sheikh Zayed City, Giza, 12588, Egypt.
Fayrouz A FouadBaheya Center for Early Detection and Treatment of Breast Cancer, Research Center, Giza, 12511, Egypt.
Esraa G EltasawiBaheya Center for Early Detection and Treatment of Breast Cancer, Research Center, Giza, 12511, Egypt.
Walid Al-AtabanyCenter for Informatics Science (CIS), School of Information Technology and Computer Science, Nile University, 26th of July Corridor, Sheikh Zayed City, Giza, 12588, Egypt.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Breast cancer, with its high incidence and mortality globally, necessitates early prediction of local and distant recurrence to improve treatment outcomes. This study develops and validates predictive models for breast cancer recurrence and metastasis using Recurrence-Free Survival Analysis and machine learning techniques. We merged datasets from the Molecular Taxonomy of Breast Cancer International Consortium, Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, Duke University, and the SEER program, creating a comprehensive dataset of 272, 252 rows and 23 columns. Our methodology utilized three predictive strategies: assessing recurrence risk, differentiating local from distant recurrences, and identifying potential metastatic sites. Key prognostic factors were identified through survival analysis. LightGBM, XGBoost, and Random Forest models were employed and validated against data from the Baheya Foundation. The models demonstrated strong performance; the survival analysis achieved a C-index of 0.837. The LightGBM model reached an AUC of 92% in predicting recurrences, while XGBoost and Random Forest models distinguished recurrence types with up to 86% accuracy, and they effectively differentiated between bone metastasis and all other locations combined (brain, liver, and lungs). This study highlights the significant potential of machine learning in advancing breast cancer management and sets a new benchmark for predictive analytics. Future research will integrate genetic data to further enhance these models.

Indexed as

Breast NeoplasmsMachine LearningNeoplasm Recurrence, LocalFemaleHumansMiddle AgedNeoplasm MetastasisPrognosisSEER ProgramSurvival AnalysisBreast cancerMachine learningMetastasisRecurrence predictionSurvival analysis

Identifiers

PMID39880868
PMCPMC11779859

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.