Evidence map›Paper›PMID 39879312›Full record

ArticleScience advances2025

Climate change aggravates bird mortality in pristine tropical forests.

Jared D Wolfe, David A Luther, Vitek Jirinec, Jeremy Collings, Erik I Johnson, Robert O Bierregaard, Philip C Stouffer

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Science advances, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 8 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
8citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

8 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
  2. Review
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

7 authors.

Jared D WolfeCollege of Forest Resources and Environmental Science, Michigan Technological University, Houghton, MI 49931, USA.ORCID 0000-0001-5575-086X
David A LutherBiological Dynamics of Forest Fragments Project, Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas da Amazônia (INPA), Manaus 69060-001, Amazonas, Brazil.ORCID 0000-0003-3331-6186
Vitek JirinecBiological Dynamics of Forest Fragments Project, Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas da Amazônia (INPA), Manaus 69060-001, Amazonas, Brazil.ORCID 0000-0001-9856-9681
Jeremy CollingsDepartment of Biology, University of Oregon, Eugene, OR 97403, USA.ORCID 0000-0003-0263-7171
Erik I JohnsonBiological Dynamics of Forest Fragments Project, Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas da Amazônia (INPA), Manaus 69060-001, Amazonas, Brazil.ORCID 0000-0002-8893-6289
Robert O BierregaardBiological Dynamics of Forest Fragments Project, Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas da Amazônia (INPA), Manaus 69060-001, Amazonas, Brazil.ORCID 0000-0001-7445-613X
Philip C StoufferBiological Dynamics of Forest Fragments Project, Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas da Amazônia (INPA), Manaus 69060-001, Amazonas, Brazil.ORCID 0000-0002-0052-0423

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Stable understory microclimates within undisturbed rainforests are often considered refugia against climate change. However, this assumption contrasts with emerging evidence of Neotropical bird population declines in intact rainforests. We assessed the vulnerability of resident rainforest birds to climatic variability, focusing on dry season severity characterized by hotter temperatures and reduced rainfall. Analyzing 4264 individual bird captures over 27 years, we found that harsher Amazonian dry seasons significantly reduced apparent survival for 24 of 29 species, with longer-lived species being more strongly affected. Our model predicted that a 1°C increase in average dry season temperature would reduce the mean apparent survival of the understory bird community by 63%. These findings directly link climate change to declining bird survival in the Amazon, challenging the notion that pristine rainforests can fully protect their biodiversity under increasingly severe climate conditions.

Indexed as

BirdsClimate ChangeForestsRainforestTropical ClimateAnimalsBiodiversityPopulation DynamicsSeasonsTemperature

Identifiers

PMID39879312
PMCPMC11777245

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.