Using machine and deep learning to predict short-term complications following trigger digit release surgery.

Background: Trigger finger is a common disorder of the hand characterized by pain and locking of the digits during flexion or extension. In cases refractory to nonoperative management, surgical release of the A1 pulley can be performed. This study evaluates the ability of machine learning (ML) techniques to predict short-term complications following trigger digit release surgery. Methods: A retrospective study was conducted using data for trigger digit release from the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (ACS-NSQIP) years 2005-2020. Outcomes of interest were 30-day complications and 30-day return to the operating room. Three ML algorithms were evaluated - a Random Forest (RF), Elastic-Net Regression (ENet), and Extreme Gradient Boosted Tree (XGBoost), along with a deep learning Neural Network (NN). Feature importance analysis was performed in the highest performing model for each outcome to identify predictors with the greatest contributions. Results: We included a total of 1209 cases of trigger digit release. The best algorithm for predicting wound complications was the RF, with an AUC of 0.64 ± 0.04. The XGBoost algorithm was best performing for medical complications (AUC: 0.70 ± 0.06) and reoperations (AUC: 0.60 ± 0.07). All three models had performance significantly above the AUC benchmark of 0.50 ± 0.00. On our feature importance analysis, age was distinctively the highest contributing predictor of wound complications. Conclusions: Machine learning can be successfully used for risk stratification in surgical patients. Moving forwards, it is imperative for hand surgeons to continue evaluating applications of ML in the field.