Association of Frailty Index at 66 Years of Age with Health Care Costs and Utilization Over 10 Years in Korea: Retrospective Cohort Study.

Background: The long-term economic impact of frailty measured at the beginning of elderhood is unknown. Objective: The objective of our study was to examine the association between an individual's frailty index at 66 years of age and their health care costs and utilization over 10 years. Methods: This retrospective cohort study included 215,887 Koreans who participated in the National Screening Program for Transitional Ages at 66 years of age between 2007-2009. Frailty was categorized using a 39-item deficit accumulation frailty index: robust (<0.15), prefrail (0.15-0.24), and frail (≥0.25). The primary outcome was total health care cost, while the secondary outcomes were inpatient and outpatient health care costs, inpatient days, and number of outpatient visits. Generalized estimating equations with a gamma distribution and identity link function were used to investigate the association between the frailty index and health care costs and utilization until December 31, 2019. Results: The study population included 53.3% (n=115,113) women, 32.9% (n=71,082) with prefrailty, and 9.7% (n=21,010) with frailty. The frailty level at 66 years of age was associated with higher cumulative total costs (robust to frail: $19,815 to $28.281; P<.001), inpatient costs (US $11,189 to US $16,627; P<.001), and outpatient costs (US $8,625 to US $11,654; P<.001) over the next 10 years. In the robust group, a one-year increase in age was associated with increased total health care costs (mean change per beneficiary per year: US $206.2; SE: $1.2; P<.001), inpatient costs (US $126.8; SE: $1.0; P<.001), and outpatient costs (US $74.4; SE: $0.4; P<.001). In the frail group, the increase in total health care costs was greater compared to the robust group (difference in mean cost per beneficiary per year: US $120.9; SE: $5.3; P<.001), inpatient costs (US $102.8; SE: $5.22; P<.001), and outpatient costs (US $15.6; SE: $1.5; P<.001). Similar results were observed for health care utilization (P<.001). Among the robust group, a one-year increase in age was associated with increased inpatient days (mean change per beneficiary per year: 0.9 d; P<.001) and outpatient visits (2.1 visits; P<.001). In the frail group, inpatient days increased annually compared to the robust group (difference in the mean inpatient days per beneficiary per year: 1.5 d; P<.001), while outpatient visits increased to a lesser extent (difference in the mean outpatient visits per beneficiary per year: -0.2 visits; P<.001). Conclusions: Our study demonstrates the potential utility of assessing frailty at 66 years of age in identifying older adults who are more likely to incur high health care costs and utilize health care services over the subsequent 10 years. The long-term high health care costs and utilization associated with frailty and prefrailty warrants public health strategies to prevent and manage frailty in aging populations.