ArticleClinical cancer research : an official journal of the American Association for Cancer Research2025
Time Dependency for Human Papillomavirus Circulating Tumor DNA Detection after Chemoradiation as a Prognostic Biomarker for Localized Anal Cancer.
Article in Clinical cancer research : an official journal of the American Association for Cancer Research, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 8 papers.
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Who cites it
8 citing papers in PubMed.
- Risk-adapted therapy guided by human papillomavirus (HPV) circulating tumor DNA in HPV-positive oropharyngeal cancer (ReACT 1.0): an exploratory phase II trial.Nature communications · 2026Trial
- HPV Serology and Circulating Viral DNA for Detection, Genotyping, and Measurement of Disease Burden in Oropharyngeal Cancer.International journal of cancer · 2026Article
- Rewriting the future of anal cancer care: From disparities to data-driven decisions.ESMO gastrointestinal oncology · 2026Article
- Circulating Biomarkers in Localized Anal Squamous Cell Carcinoma Across Treatment Timepoints: A Systematic Review.Cancers · 2026Review
- Tumor-informed circulating tumor DNA stratifies recurrence risk and survival in anal squamous cell carcinoma.Nature communications · 2026Article
- Divergent immune ecosystems in HPV-associated and HPV-independent lower anogenital tract malignancies.Frontiers in immunology · 2026Review
- Resolving Clinically Indeterminate Findings During Anal Cancer Surveillance with TTMV-HPV DNA.Cancers · 2025Article
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21 authors.
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Abstract
purposeAlthough detection of ctDNA weeks after surgery is linked to recurrence for other solid tumors, the optimal time point for ctDNA assessment as a prognostic biomarker following chemoradiation for anal cancer is undefined. EXPERIMENTAL
designPatients with stages I to III anal cancer treated with chemoradiation between December 2020 and March 2024 were evaluated for human papillomavirus (HPV) ctDNA status at baseline, at the end of chemoradiation, and during surveillance using a droplet digital HPV ctDNA PCR assay, targeting HPV E6 and E7 oncogenes for 13 oncogenic HPV types. Median recurrence-free survival (RFS) according to HPV ctDNA status was estimated via Kaplan-Meier and compared using a log-rank test.
resultsDetection of HPV ctDNA at ≥3 months after chemoradiation was associated with recurrence (80% vs. 2%; OR, 168; 95% confidence interval (CI), 13.6-2,080; P < 0.0001) and inferior RFS [4.9 months vs. not reached; HR, 39.2; 95% CI, 4.6-330; P < 0.0001] relative to HPV ctDNA-negative status. Sensitivity and specificity for recurrence according to HPV ctDNA detection were 89% and 95%, respectively, with positive and negative predictive values of 80% and 98%, respectively. Differences in RFS according to HPV ctDNA status were not observed at the end of treatment (median RFS, not reached for both; HR, 1.6; 95% CI, 0.35-7.4; P = 0.48).
conclusionsWith a novel, highly sensitive assay, detection of HPV ctDNA at least 3 months after chemoradiation was associated with unfavorable survival. Future clinical trials should incorporate this 3-month post-treatment time point to identify patients with HPV-positive anal cancer at elevated recurrence risk according to HPV ctDNA status. See related commentary by Bercz et al., p. 2261.
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