Evidence map›Paper›PMID 39870880›Full record

SynthesisNature human behaviour2025

A systematic review and meta-analyses of the temporal stability and convergent validity of risk preference measures.

Alexandra Bagaïni, Yunrui Liu, Madlaina Kapoor, Gayoung Son, Paul-Christian Bürkner, Loreen Tisdall, Rui Mata

Abstract readSystematic ReviewMeta-Analysis
In one paragraph

Synthesis in Nature human behaviour, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
2citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

2 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
  2. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

7 authors.

Alexandra BagaïniFaculty of Psychology, University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland.ORCID 0000-0002-9108-1912
Yunrui LiuFaculty of Psychology, University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland.ORCID 0000-0002-1981-4691
Madlaina KapoorFaculty of Psychology, University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland.
Gayoung SonDepartment of Psychology, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland.ORCID 0000-0001-9795-1483
Paul-Christian BürknerDepartment of Statistics, TU Dortmund University, Dortmund, Germany.ORCID 0000-0001-5765-8995
Loreen TisdallFaculty of Psychology, University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland.ORCID 0000-0001-6303-6148
Rui MataFaculty of Psychology, University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland. rui.mata@unibas.ch.ORCID 0000-0002-1679-906X

Funding

Schweizerischer Nationalfonds zur Förderung der Wissenschaftlichen Forschung (Swiss National Science Foundation) 177277Schweizerischer Nationalfonds zur Förderung der Wissenschaftlichen Forschung (Swiss National Science Foundation) 204700
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Understanding whether risk preference represents a stable, coherent trait is central to efforts aimed at explaining, predicting and preventing risk-related behaviours. We help characterize the nature of the construct by adopting a systematic review and individual participant data meta-analytic approach to summarize the temporal stability of 358 risk preference measures (33 panels, 57 samples, 579,114 respondents). Our findings reveal noteworthy heterogeneity across and within measure categories (propensity, frequency and behaviour), domains (for example, investment, occupational and alcohol consumption) and sample characteristics (for example, age). Specifically, while self-reported propensity and frequency measures of risk preference show a higher degree of stability than behavioural measures, these patterns are moderated by domain and age. Crucially, an analysis of convergent validity reveals a low agreement across measures, questioning the idea that they capture the same underlying phenomena. Our results raise concerns about the coherence and measurement of the risk preference construct.

Indexed as

Risk-TakingHumansReproducibility of Results

Identifiers

PMID39870880
PMCPMC12018263

What OpenQuestion holds

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LicenceCC BY
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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.