ArticleNature medicine2025
Estimating future heat-related and cold-related mortality under climate change, demographic and adaptation scenarios in 854 European cities.
Article in Nature medicine, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 34 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
34 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Building the model: a review of input structures in extreme temperature-health.Environmental health : a global access science source · 2026Pooled it
- Non optimal temperatures and chronic cardiovascular diseases.Seminars in immunopathology · 2026Review
- Article
- [The oldest old and climate change: an emerging field of research].Bundesgesundheitsblatt, Gesundheitsforschung, Gesundheitsschutz · 2026Review
- The Association Between Ambient Temperature and Hypoglycemia in People Living With Type 1 Diabetes: A Case Time Series Analysis Using Real-Time Continuous Glucose Monitoring.Diabetes care · 2026Article
- Working in Extreme Heat, an Invisible Occupational Risk: Legislation, Risk Management and Policy Recommendations for Türkiye: Turkish Thoracic Society Workshop Report on the Regulation of Working Conditions in Extreme Heat.Thoracic research and practice · 2026Article
- The Climate-Health Divide: How Climate Change Will Rewire Health Care Across High-, Middle-, and Low-Income Settings.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2026Review
- Warming-driven shifts in global building energy use reshape climate mitigation planning.Nature communications · 2026Article
- Projecting climate change impacts on health: A tutorial integrating the latest climate and demographic scenarios.Environmental epidemiology (Philadelphia, Pa.) · 2026Article
- Quantifying the financial burden of heat-related hospital admissions in Switzerland under a changing climate: A scalable analytical framework.BMC global and public health · 2026Article
- Regional variations in emergency care vulnerability to summer heat.Nature communications · 2026Article
- Temperature Variability and Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease: The China Pulmonary Health Study.Environment & health (Washington, D.C.) · 2026Article
- Environmental Exposures and Atherosclerotic Risk Factors in Vulnerable Youth: The Example of American Indian/Alaska Native Populations.Current atherosclerosis reports · 2026Review
- Development of Wearable Heatstroke Warning System (HeatGuard): Design, Validation and Controlled-Environment Testing Among Triathletes.Sensors (Basel, Switzerland) · 2026Article
- Integrated impact of climate change on health outcomes and economic stability in PEPFAR-supported African countries.Health affairs scholar · 2026Article
- Future temperature-related mortality in various climate change and adaptation scenarios in Finland.International journal of biometeorology · 2026Article
- Unveiling heat vulnerability of older adults: an assessment of emergency hospital admissions in Switzerland.International journal of epidemiology · 2026Article
- Temperature-attributable mortality projections under scenarios of climate change for Oslo, Norway.BMC public health · 2026Article
- Harvesting Effect and Extreme Temperature-Related Mortality in Italy.European journal of population = Revue europeenne de demographie · 2026Article
- Why water security matters to cities under extreme heat in the Global North.npj urban sustainability · 2026Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
16 authors.
Funding
Abstract
Previous health impact assessments of temperature-related mortality in Europe indicated that the mortality burden attributable to cold is much larger than for heat. Questions remain as to whether climate change can result in a net decrease in temperature-related mortality. In this study, we estimated how climate change could affect future heat-related and cold-related mortality in 854 European urban areas, under several climate, demographic and adaptation scenarios. We showed that, with no adaptation to heat, the increase in heat-related deaths consistently exceeds any decrease in cold-related deaths across all considered scenarios in Europe. Under the lowest mitigation and adaptation scenario (SSP3-7.0), we estimate a net death burden due to climate change increasing by 49.9% and cumulating 2,345,410 (95% confidence interval = 327,603 to 4,775,853) climate change-related deaths between 2015 and 2099. This net effect would remain positive even under high adaptation scenarios, whereby a risk attenuation of 50% is still insufficient to reverse the trend under SSP3-7.0. Regional differences suggest a slight net decrease of death rates in Northern European countries but high vulnerability of the Mediterranean region and Eastern Europe areas. Unless strong mitigation and adaptation measures are implemented, most European cities should experience an increase of their temperature-related mortality burden.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.