ArticlemedRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences2025
Atypical hyperendemicity of Rift Valley fever in Southwestern Uganda associated with the rapidly evolving lineage C viruses.
Article in medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Abstract
Introduction: Recent Rift Valley fever (RVF) epidemiology in eastern Africa region is characterized by widening geographic range and increasing frequency of small disease clusters. Here we conducted studies in southwestern (SW) Uganda region that has since 2016 reported increasing RVF activities. Methods: A 22-month long hospital-based study in three districts of SW Uganda targeting patients with acute febrile illness (AFI) or unexplained bleeding was followed by a cross-sectional population-based human-animal survey. We then estimated RVFV force of infection (FOI) and yearly cases using the age-structured seroprevalence data and conducted genomic phylodynamic modelling of RVFV isolates. Results: Overall RVF prevalence was 10.5% (205 of 1,968) among febrile or hemorrhagic cases, including 5% with acute (PCR or IgM positive) infection, averaging 5 cases per month. Community-based serosurvey recorded prevalence of 11.8% (88 of 743) among humans and 14.6% (347 of 2,383) in livestock. Expected yearly human RVF cases were 314-2,111 per 1,369 km Conclusions: We demonstrate an atypical RVF hyperendemic region in SW Uganda characterized by sustained human clinical RVF cases, unusually high population prevalence, and high number of expected yearly human cases, associated in part with emergence of new RVFV sub-lineages. Key points: Rift Valley fever (RVF) studies in SW Uganda found atypical sustained human cases averaging 5 cases/month, >10% population prevalence, and expected yearly cases >3-fold higher (314-2,111 vs 0-711) than comparable regions in East Africa, associated with emerging RVFV sub-lineages.
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