Evidence map›Paper›PMID 39864427›Full record

ArticleOncology2025

Constructing and Validating Models for Predicting Gleason Grade Group Upgrading following Radical Prostatectomy in Localized Prostate Cancer: A Comparison between Machine Learning Algorithms and Conventional Logistic Regression.

Yonglian Guo, Qian Gui, Xin Wang, Dandan Wu, Yonglian Guo

Abstract readComparative StudyValidation Study
In one paragraph

Article in Oncology, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
2citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

2 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

5 authors.

Yonglian Guo
Qian GuiDepartment of Urology, The Central Hospital of Wuhan, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, China, 615918144@qq.com.
Xin WangDepartment of Urological Tumor Surgery, Jiangxi Cancer Hospital, Nanchang, China.
Dandan WuDepartment of Urology, Tianyou Hospital Affiliated to Wuhan University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, China.
Yonglian GuoDepartment of Urology, The Central Hospital of Wuhan, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, China.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

introductionThe occurrence of Gleason grade group upgrading (GGU) significantly impacts treatment strategy developments. We aimed to develop an optimal predictive model to assess the risk of GGU in patients with localized prostate cancer (PCa), by comparing traditional logistic regression (LR) with seven machine learning algorithms.

methodsA retrospective collection of clinical data was conducted on patients who underwent radical prostatectomy at Wuhan Central Hospital (January 2017 to December 2023, n = 177) and Jiangxi Cancer Hospital (July 2019 to February 2024, n = 87). The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression was employed to filter the clinical characteristics of patients. Subsequently, models were conducted using multivariate LR, along with seven diverse machine learning algorithms: extreme gradient boosting, decision tree, multilayer perceptron, naive Bayes, K-nearest neighbors, random forest, and support vector machine. By employing the receiver operating characteristic curves, accuracy, brier score, recall, calibration curves, and decision curve analysis (DCA), we compared the predictive capabilities and clinical utility of eight models to identify the optimal one.

resultsIn the evaluation of eight models, the LR model demonstrated superior performance. In the modeling set, it achieved an area under curve (AUC) of 0.826 (95% CI: 0.808-0.845), accuracy of 0.765, and a brier score of 0.167. In the validation set, it kept good results with an AUC of 0.819 (95% CI: 0.758-0.880), accuracy of 0.725, and a brier score of 0.180. The calibration curves, brier score, and DCA also demonstrated the excellent calibration and net benefit of the LR model.

conclusionsAfter conducting a comprehensive multi-model comparison, we concluded that the LR model was optimal for predicting GGU, which was confirmed by external validation. Our study also revealed percent free prostate-specific antigen density as a predictive factor for GGU, offering a novel approach for managing localized PCa patients.

Indexed as

Machine LearningProstatectomyProstatic NeoplasmsAgedAlgorithmsHumansLogistic ModelsMaleMiddle AgedNeoplasm GradingRetrospective StudiesROC CurveGleason grade groupLocalized prostate cancerMachine learningRadical prostatectomy

Identifiers

PMID39864427
PMCPMC12582573

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.