ArticleBMC public health2025
Expansion of medical school admission quotas in Korea, is it really necessary?
Article in BMC public health, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 4 papers.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
4 citing papers in PubMed.
- Changes in the Distribution of General Physicians in Korea During the 2024-2025 Medical Crisis: A Descriptive Analysis Using Nationwide HIRA Data.Journal of Korean medical science · 2026Article
- Effect of national antimicrobial resistance policies on antibiotic prescribing rates in South Korea: an interrupted time series analysis.Antimicrobial resistance and infection control · 2026Article
- The association of workload during healthcare service disruption with the mental health of prehospital emergency medical service providers in Korea.Preventive medicine reports · 2025Article
- The growing oversupply of physicians in Ecuador: challenges and implications for the healthcare system.Frontiers in public health · 2025Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
5 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundIn 2024, the Korean Ministry of Health and Welfare enforced a policy to increase the number of medical school students by 2,000 over the next 5 years, despite opposition from doctors. This study aims to predict the trend of excess or shortage of medical personnel in Korea due to the policy of increasing the number of medical school students by 2035.
methodsData from multiple sources, including the Ministry of Health and Welfare, National Health Insurance Corporation, and the Korean Medical Association, were used to estimate supply and demand. The inflow-outflow method was used for supply estimation, and assumptions were made regarding national medical examination pass rates, clinical physician consultation rates, mortality rates, and overseas emigration rates. Per capita medical use by gender and age group in 2022 was calculated for demand estimation of future medical use, and the results of future population projections were applied. The numbers of working days examined were 265, 275, 285, and 289.5 days.
resultsThe Korean government's prediction that there will be a shortage of 10,000 doctors in 2035 can be confirmed by the underestimation of the number of working days (265 days). However, if the actual number of working days, 289.5 days, is applied, not only will there be no shortage of doctors in 2035, but there could also be an oversupply of 3,000 doctors. If the number of medical school students has increased for five years and the public's medical use behavior and the number of working days for doctors are maintained at the current level, there is a possibility that there will be an oversupply of as many as 11,000 doctors by 2035.
conclusionsMedical experts expressed concerns that the rapid increase in medical school enrollment would exacerbate the phenomenon of concentration, increase the cost of medical care, and collapse the medical system. In order to establish a reasonable plan for the supply and demand of medical personnel in the mid- to long-term, it is necessary to consider the future medical environment through discussions with medical providers and related organizations.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.