Evidence map›Paper›PMID 39862251›Full record

ArticleInternational journal of biometeorology2025

Extreme heat risk and the potential implications for the scheduling of football matches at the 2026 FIFA World Cup.

Donal Mullan, Iestyn Barr, Neil Brannigan, Nuala Flood, Oliver R Gibson, Catherine Hambly, Alan T Kennedy-Asser, Aimée C Kielt, Tom Matthews, Madeleine Orr

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in International journal of biometeorology, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
2citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

2 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Review
  2. Review
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

10 authors.

Donal MullanSchool of Natural and Built Environment, Queen's University Belfast, Belfast, Northern Ireland, UK. D.Mullan@qub.ac.uk.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-6363-3150
Iestyn BarrDepartment of Natural Sciences, Manchester Metropolitan University, Manchester, England, UK.
Neil BranniganSchool of Geography and Environmental Sciences, Ulster University, Coleraine, Northern Ireland, UK.
Nuala FloodSchool of Natural and Built Environment, Queen's University Belfast, Belfast, Northern Ireland, UK.
Oliver R GibsonDepartment of Life Sciences, Brunel University London, London, England, UK.
Catherine HamblySchool of Biological Sciences, University of Aberdeen, Aberdeen, Scotland, UK.
Alan T Kennedy-AsserSchool of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, England, UK.
Aimée C KieltSchool of Natural and Built Environment, Queen's University Belfast, Belfast, Northern Ireland, UK.
Tom MatthewsDepartment of Geography, King's College London, London, England, UK.
Madeleine OrrFaculty of Kinesiology and Physical Education, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Climate change is making extreme heat events more frequent and intense. This negatively impacts many aspects of society, including organised sport. As the world's most watched sporting event, the FIFA World Cup commands particular attention around the threat of extreme heat. The 2022 tournament in Qatar was moved from summer to winter in response to this threat, and now attention turns to the 2026 tournament in North America with extreme heat risk across many of the 16 host locations. We examine this risk by modelling wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT) - a widely used measure of heat stress - for the host locations using hourly meteorological data for the period 2003-2022. Our results show that 14 out of 16 host locations exceed WBGTs of 28 °C, with four (nine) exceeding this threshold more than half the time during afternoons across the mean (hottest year) of the 20 year record. This threshold is important as the level beyond which some football governing bodies recommend match delay or postponement. A climatically sound argument is therefore presented to reschedule kick-off times outside the hottest afternoon hours for the host locations with highest heat risk at which no indoor air conditioned environment exists - primarily Miami and Monterrey, but also Philadelphia, Kansas City, Boston and New York. This study highlights the need to carefully assess heat risk ahead of major sporting events to help inform any potential interventions needed in the scheduling of matches and competitions in a warming climate.

Indexed as

Extreme HeatHeat Stress DisordersHot TemperatureSoccerClimate ChangeHumansModels, TheoreticalClimate changeExertional heat illnessHumidityNorth AmericaSportWet bulb globe temperature

Identifiers

PMID39862251
PMCPMC11947059

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.