Risk effects of environmental factors on human brucellosis in Aksu Prefecture, Xinjiang, China, 2014-2023.

The context of rapid global environmental change underscores the pressing necessity to investigate the environmental factors and high-risk areas that contribute to the occurrence of brucellosis. In this study, a maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model was employed to analyze the factors influencing brucellosis in the Aksu Prefecture from 2014 to 2023. A distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) was employed to investigate the lagged effect of meteorological factors on the occurrence of brucellosis. A total of 17 environmental factors were identified as affecting the distribution of brucellosis to varying degrees. The largest contributing was the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), followed by gross domestic product (GDP), and then meteorological factors such as average temperature, average relative humidity, and average wind speed. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve demonstrated that the MaxEnt model exhibited a high degree of predictive efficacy, with an area under the curve (AUC) value of 0.921. The impact of high temperature (25℃ with a 2-month lag, RR = 3.130, 95% CI 1.642 ~ 5.965), low relative humidity (28% with a 2.5-month lag, RR = 1.795, 95% CI 1.298 ~ 2.483), and low wind speed (1.9 m/s with a 0-month lag, RR = 2.408, 95% CI 1.360 ~ 4.264) are the most significant meteorological factors associated with the incidence of brucellosis. The trends in the impact of extreme meteorological conditions on the spread of brucellosis were found to be generally consistent. Stratified analyses indicated that males were more affected by meteorological factors than females. The prevalence of brucellosis is influenced by a range of socio-economic and meteorological factors, and a multifaceted approach is necessary to prevent and control brucellosis.