Evidence map›Paper›PMID 39848335›Full record

Trial reportAnnals of oncology : official journal of the European Society for Medical Oncology2025

Survival among patients treated with total mesorectal excision or selective watch-and-wait after total neoadjuvant therapy: a pooled analysis of the CAO/ARO/AIO-12 and OPRA randomized phase II trials.

H Williams, E Fokas, M Diefenhardt, C Lee, F S Verheij, D M Omer, S T Lin, R F Dunne, J Marcet, P Cataldo and 16 more

Abstract readClinical Trial, Phase IIMulticenter StudyRandomized Controlled Trial
In one paragraph

Trial report in Annals of oncology : official journal of the European Society for Medical Oncology, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 25 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
25citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

25 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Trial
  3. Total neoadjuvant therapy for rectal cancer: where are we now, where do we go?Clinical and translational radiation oncology · 2026
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  9. Total neoadjuvant therapy with dose-escalated radiotherapy for organ preservation in locally advanced rectal cancer: real-world outcomes.Strahlentherapie und Onkologie : Organ der Deutschen Rontgengesellschaft ... [et al] · 2026
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

26 authors.

H WilliamsDepartment of Surgery, Colorectal Service, Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, New York, USA.
E FokasDepartment of Radiotherapy and Oncology, University of Frankfurt, Frankfurt, Germany; German Cancer Research Center (DKFZ), Heidelberg, Germany; German Cancer Consortium (DKTK), Partner Site, Frankfurt, Germany; Frankfurt Cancer Institute, Frankfurt, Germany; Department of Radiation Oncology, Cyberknife and Radiotherapy, Center for Integrated Oncology Aachen Bonn Cologne Duesseldorf (CIO ABCD), Faculty of Medicine Cologne, University Hospital Cologne, Cologne, Germany.
M DiefenhardtDepartment of Radiotherapy and Oncology, University of Frankfurt, Frankfurt, Germany; German Cancer Research Center (DKFZ), Heidelberg, Germany; German Cancer Consortium (DKTK), Partner Site, Frankfurt, Germany; Frankfurt Cancer Institute, Frankfurt, Germany.
C LeeDepartment of Surgery, Colorectal Service, Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, New York, USA.
F S VerheijDepartment of Surgery, Colorectal Service, Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, New York, USA.
D M OmerDepartment of Surgery, Colorectal Service, Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, New York, USA.
S T LinDepartment of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, New York, USA.
R F DunneDepartment of Medicine, Wilmot Cancer Institute, University of Rochester Medical Center, Rochester, USA.
J MarcetDivision of Colon and Rectal Surgery, Department of Surgery, University of South Florida, Tampa, USA.
P CataldoDivision of General Surgery, Department of Surgery, University of Vermont, Burlington, USA.
B PoliteDepartment of Medicine, Comprehensive Cancer Center, University of Chicago, Chicago, USA.
P PisoDepartment of General and Visceral Surgery, Barmherzige Brüder Hospital, Regensburg, Germany.
B PolatDepartment of Radiation Oncology, University Hospital Würzburg, Germany.
H DapperDepartment of Radiation Oncology, Cyberknife and Radiotherapy, Center for Integrated Oncology Aachen Bonn Cologne Duesseldorf (CIO ABCD), Faculty of Medicine Cologne, University Hospital Cologne, Cologne, Germany.
M GhadimiDepartment of General and Visceral Surgery, University Medical Center Göttingen, Göttingen, Germany.
R D HofheinzDepartment of Medical Oncology, University Hospital Mannheim, Mannheim, Germany.
L-X QinDepartment of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, New York, USA.
L B SaltzDepartment of Medicine, Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, New York, USA.
A J WuDepartment of Radiation Oncology, Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, New York, USA.
M J GollubDepartment of Radiology, Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, New York, USA.
J J SmithDepartment of Surgery, Colorectal Service, Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, New York, USA.
M R WeiserDepartment of Surgery, Colorectal Service, Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, New York, USA.
C RödelDepartment of Radiotherapy and Oncology, University of Frankfurt, Frankfurt, Germany.
J Garcia-AguilarDepartment of Surgery, Colorectal Service, Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, New York, USA. Electronic address: garciaaj@mskcc.org.
German Rectal Cancer Study Group
OPRA Consortium

Funding

X-RAY CRYSTALLOGRAPHYP30CA008748 · NCI · SLOAN-KETTERING INSTITUTE FOR CANCER RES · PI Hongbiao Carl Lekaye · 1985 to 2026
$347.4M
SURGICAL ONCOLOGY RESEARCH TRAINING PROGRAMT32CA009501 · NCI · SLOAN-KETTERING INSTITUTE FOR CANCER RES · PI Babak J Mehrara · 1985 to 2026
$7.7M
Organ Preservation in Rectal AdenocarcinomaR01CA182551 · NCI · SLOAN-KETTERING INST CAN RESEARCH · PI GARCIA-AGUILAR, JULIO · 2014 to 2018
$3.1M
NCI NIH HHS P30 CA008748NCI NIH HHS R01 CA182551NCI NIH HHS T32 CA009501
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundProspective data comparing watch-and-wait (WW) to mandatory total mesorectal excision (TME) in patients with locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC) remain limited, as randomized control trials assessing these two treatment approaches are considered impractical. This pooled analysis of the CAO/ARO/AIO-12 and OPRA trials analyzes survival outcomes among LARC patients managed with either a selective WW or mandatory TME strategy following total neoadjuvant therapy (TNT). PATIENTS AND

methodsThe CAO/ARO/AIO-12 and OPRA trials were multicenter, phase II trials that randomized patients with stage II/III rectal cancer to receive either induction or consolidation chemotherapy as part of TNT. All patients in the CAO/ARO/AIO-12 trial underwent TME within 6 weeks of completing TNT. The OPRA trial allowed patients with a complete or near-complete response to enter WW while those with an incomplete response proceeded to TME. The primary endpoint of the present pooled analysis was disease-free survival (DFS). Secondary endpoints included distant recurrence-free survival (DRFS), local recurrence-free survival (LRFS) and overall survival (OS).

resultsThis pooled analysis included 628 patients (n = 304 CAO/ARO/AIO-12; n = 324 OPRA). Median follow-up was 3.6 [interquartile range (IQR) 1.13] years and 5.1 (IQR 2.2) years, respectively. Patients in the CAO/ARO/AIO-12 trial were more likely to have cT3/4 and cN-positive disease while patients in the OPRA trial had tumors closer to the anal verge. Compliance to TNT and rates of grade 3+ adverse events were similar between studies. There were no differences in DFS, DRFS, LRFS or OS based on treatment strategy or TNT treatment arm.

conclusionsThis pooled analysis demonstrated equivalent oncologic outcomes between patients treated with mandatory TME and selective WW strategies following TNT. These results strengthen available evidence indicating that WW is a safe treatment option for patients with an excellent response to neoadjuvant therapy.

Indexed as

Neoadjuvant TherapyRectal NeoplasmsAdultAgedDisease-Free SurvivalFemaleHumansMaleMiddle Agedlocally advanced rectal cancernonoperative managementtotal neoadjuvant therapywatch-and-wait

Identifiers

PMID39848335
PMCPMC12034476

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.