Evidence map›Paper›PMID 39842946›Full record

ArticleThe Journal of infectious diseases2025

The Current and Future Burden of Long COVID in the United States.

Sarah M Bartsch, Kevin L Chin, Ulrich Strych, Danielle C John, Tej D Shah, Maria Elena Bottazzi, Kelly J O'Shea, McKaylee Robertson, Colleen Weatherwax, Jessie Heneghan and 10 more

Erratum issuedAbstract read
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in The Journal of infectious diseases, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. An erratum has been issued. Cited by 31 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
31citing papers in PubMed, 2 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

31 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Pooled it
  3. Article
  4. Article
  5. Article
  6. Review
  7. Article
  8. Article
  9. Article
  10. Barriers to Long COVID Care in the U.S.: An Application of Levesque et al.'s Access Framework.Health care analysis : HCA : journal of health philosophy and policy · 2026
    Article
  11. Review
  12. Article
  13. Article
  14. Article
  15. Article
  16. Long COVID disability burden in US adults.Communications medicine · 2026
    Article
  17. Article
  18. Article
  19. Article
  20. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

20 authors.

Sarah M BartschPublic Health Informatics, Computational, and Operations Research, City University of New York Graduate School of Public Health and Health Policy, New York City, New York, USA.
Kevin L ChinPublic Health Informatics, Computational, and Operations Research, City University of New York Graduate School of Public Health and Health Policy, New York City, New York, USA.ORCID 0000-0001-8715-7016
Ulrich StrychDepartment of Pediatrics, and Texas Children's Hospital Center for Vaccine Development, National School of Tropical Medicine, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, Texas, USA.
Danielle C JohnPublic Health Informatics, Computational, and Operations Research, City University of New York Graduate School of Public Health and Health Policy, New York City, New York, USA.
Tej D ShahPublic Health Informatics, Computational, and Operations Research, City University of New York Graduate School of Public Health and Health Policy, New York City, New York, USA.ORCID 0009-0004-8237-7254
Maria Elena BottazziDepartment of Pediatrics, and Texas Children's Hospital Center for Vaccine Development, National School of Tropical Medicine, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, Texas, USA.
Kelly J O'SheaPublic Health Informatics, Computational, and Operations Research, City University of New York Graduate School of Public Health and Health Policy, New York City, New York, USA.
McKaylee RobertsonInstitute for Implementation Science in Population Health, City University of New York Graduate School of Public Health and Health Policy, New York City, New York, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-8426-6572
Colleen WeatherwaxPublic Health Informatics, Computational, and Operations Research, City University of New York Graduate School of Public Health and Health Policy, New York City, New York, USA.ORCID 0000-0001-5929-518X
Jessie HeneghanPublic Health Informatics, Computational, and Operations Research, City University of New York Graduate School of Public Health and Health Policy, New York City, New York, USA.
Marie F MartinezPublic Health Informatics, Computational, and Operations Research, City University of New York Graduate School of Public Health and Health Policy, New York City, New York, USA.
Allan CicirielloDepartment of Pediatrics, and Texas Children's Hospital Center for Vaccine Development, National School of Tropical Medicine, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, Texas, USA.
Sarah KulkarniInstitute for Implementation Science in Population Health, City University of New York Graduate School of Public Health and Health Policy, New York City, New York, USA.
Kavya VelmuruganPublic Health Informatics, Computational, and Operations Research, City University of New York Graduate School of Public Health and Health Policy, New York City, New York, USA.
Alexis DibbsPublic Health Informatics, Computational, and Operations Research, City University of New York Graduate School of Public Health and Health Policy, New York City, New York, USA.ORCID 0009-0001-5871-6023
Sheryl A ScannellPublic Health Informatics, Computational, and Operations Research, City University of New York Graduate School of Public Health and Health Policy, New York City, New York, USA.ORCID 0000-0003-2784-6279
Yanhan ShenInstitute for Implementation Science in Population Health, City University of New York Graduate School of Public Health and Health Policy, New York City, New York, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-9703-4412
Denis NashInstitute for Implementation Science in Population Health, City University of New York Graduate School of Public Health and Health Policy, New York City, New York, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-3280-5386
Peter J HotezDepartment of Pediatrics, and Texas Children's Hospital Center for Vaccine Development, National School of Tropical Medicine, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, Texas, USA.ORCID 0000-0001-8770-1042
Bruce Y LeePublic Health Informatics, Computational, and Operations Research, City University of New York Graduate School of Public Health and Health Policy, New York City, New York, USA.

Funding

Following a U.S. National Cohort of Vulnerable Men to Improve HIV Prevention and CareUH3AI133675 · NIAID · GRADUATE SCHOOL OF PUBLIC HEALTH AND HEALTH POLICY · PI GROV, CHRISTIAN · 2019 to 2021
$6.9M
City University of New YorkNIAID NIH HHS UH3 AI133675NIH HHSUS Department of Health and Human Services
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundLong coronavirus disease (COVID), which affects an estimated 44.69-48.04 million people in the United States, is an ongoing public health concern that will persist as severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) continues to spread.

methodsWe developed a computational simulation model representing the clinical course, health effects, and associated costs of a person with long COVID.

resultsSimulations show that the average total cost of a long COVID case can range from $5084-$11 646 (assuming symptoms only last 1 year) with 92.5%-95.2% of these costs being productivity losses. Therefore, the current number of long COVID cases could cost society at least $2.01-$6.56 billion, employers at least $1.99-$6.49 billion in productivity losses, and third-party payers $21.0-$68.5 million annually (6%-20% probability of developing long COVID). These cases would accrue 35 808-121 259 quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) lost and 13 484-45 468 disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and would rise as COVID-19 incidence increases.

conclusionsThe current health and economic burden of long COVID may already exceed that of a number of other chronic diseases and will continue to grow each year as COVID-19 cases increase. This could be a significant drain on businesses, third-party payers, the healthcare system, and society.

Indexed as

Cost of IllnessCOVID-19Computer SimulationHealth Care CostsHumansPost-Acute COVID-19 SyndromeSARS-CoV-2United Statescosteconomiclong COVIDmodelpost-COVID conditions

Identifiers

PMID39842946
PMCPMC12247809

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.