ArticleThe Journal of infectious diseases2025
Population-Based Age-Period-Cohort Analysis of Declining Human Papillomavirus Prevalence.
Article in The Journal of infectious diseases, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 17 papers.
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Who cites it
17 citing papers in PubMed.
- Population-Based First Estimates of the Effect of HPV Vaccination in Three Italian Areas Covered by Organised Cervical Screening.International journal of cancer · 2026Article
- [Vaccine prevention of HPV-associated diseases].Dermatologie (Heidelberg, Germany) · 2026Review
- How practically feasible is tailored screening for cervical cancer based on human papillomavirus vaccination status?: the role of data linkage and registers.Journal of the National Cancer Institute. Monographs · 2026Review
- Nationwide audit of cervical cancer screening reveals unsatisfactory triage strategies and trends over time in incidence among cytology negative women.International journal of cancer · 2026Article
- Challenges and possible solutions towards reaching global cervical cancer elimination.EClinicalMedicine · 2026Review
- Decreases in Human Papillomavirus Vaccine Types 16 and 18 in Cervical Precancers: HPV-IMPACT, 2008 to 2019.Cancer epidemiology, biomarkers & prevention : a publication of the American Association for Cancer Research, cosponsored by the American Society of Preventive Oncology · 2026Article
- Quality indicators for cervical screening in Sweden.Journal of medical screening · 2026Article
- Predicting optimal impact interventions in the post-HPV vaccination world.International journal of cancer · 2026Review
- International Collaborative Study on Human Papillomavirus Analytical Thresholds for Sensitivity and Specificity in Cervical Screening.Journal of medical virology · 2026Article
- Clinical relevance of partial HPV genotyping in cervical cancer screening.Scientific reports · 2026Article
- Article
- Human Papillomavirus Screening: Design and Targeting of Human Papillomavirus Genotypes.Current topics in microbiology and immunology · 2026Review
- Beyond Women's Health: Long-Term Human Papillomavirus-Related Cancer Trends in Norway.The Journal of infectious diseases · 2025Observational
- The High Prevalence of Oncogenic HPV Genotypes Targeted by the Nonavalent HPV Vaccine in HIV-Infected Women Urgently Reinforces the Need for Prophylactic Vaccination in Key Female Populations Living in Gabon.Diseases (Basel, Switzerland) · 2025Article
- Strong Herd Effects of Human Papillomavirus Vaccination.The Journal of infectious diseases · 2025Article
- Age-period-cohort analysis of global, regional, and national cervical cancer prevalence trends in women of childbearing age (15-49 years), 1990-2021.BMC women's health · 2025Article
- Self-collected vaginal HPV samples for long-term non-attendees in the Swedish organized cervical cancer screening program.Acta obstetricia et gynecologica Scandinavica · 2025Article
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Authors and funding
5 authors.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundMost countries in the world have launched human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination programs, and declining HPV prevalences are reported. We aimed to disentangle the influences of calendar time, birth cohort, and age by analyzing HPV prevalences in the population-based cervical screening program using age-period-cohort modeling.
methodsAll 813 882 primary HPV-based cervical screening tests from women aged 23-64 years between 2014 and 2023 in the capital region of Sweden were identified in the Swedish National Cervical Screening Registry. The odds ratio (OR) of HPV-16/18 infection was estimated comparing birth cohorts to the unvaccinated 1984-born using an age-period-cohort model. The impact of changing HPV prevalences on the number needed to screen (NNS) to detect and prevent 1 cervical cancer case was calculated.
resultsHPV vaccination coverage was 82%-83% among women born in 1999-2000. Before 2019, the HPV-16/18 prevalence was highest among the youngest women. During 2020-2023 the prevalence consistently decreased among the birth cohorts offered organized school-based vaccination. There was a 98% decline in HPV-16 prevalence (OR, 0.02 [95% confidence interval {CI}, .01-.04]) and a 99% decline in HPV-18 prevalence (OR, 0.01 [95% CI, .00-.04]) among the 2000-born compared to the 1984-born. The declining HPV-16/18 prevalences resulted in major increases in the NNS to detect and to prevent 1 case of cervical cancer.
conclusionsThe declines of HPV-16/18 were considerably larger than the vaccination coverage, suggesting herd immunity. The changing epidemiology of HPV types impacts screening needs, necessitating updated screening programs.
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