ArticleFrontiers in public health2024
Disease burden of tuberculosis in China from 1990 to 2021 and its prediction to 2036.
Article in Frontiers in public health, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 9 papers.
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Who cites it
9 citing papers in PubMed.
- Efficacy and Safety of Xeligekimab Compared to Other IL-17A Inhibitors for Chinese Patients with Moderate-to-severe Plaque Psoriasis: A Matching-adjusted Indirect Comparisons.Acta dermato-venereologica · 2026Trial
- Inebilizumab in AQP4-Seropositive NMOSD: One-Year Follow-Up From a Multicenter, Real-World Study.Annals of clinical and translational neurology · 2026Article
- Epidemiological Distribution Characteristics of Tuberculosis Among Older Adults in Chongqing (2020-2024): Spatial-Temporal Analysis.JMIR public health and surveillance · 2026Article
- Trends in Pulmonary Tuberculosis Mortality: A Population-Based Study in a Northern Vietnamese Province, 2005-2008 and 2011-2018.Tropical medicine and infectious disease · 2026Article
- Long-Term Trends and Determinants of Tuberculosis Burden in China, 1990-2023: Insights from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2023.Pathogens (Basel, Switzerland) · 2026Article
- The outcomes of isoniazid prophylaxis in LTBI high-risk pediatric patients undergoing hematopoietic stem cell transplantation.BMC infectious diseases · 2026Article
- Global, regional, and national burden of tuberculosis, 1990-2050: a systematic comparative analysis based on retrospective cross-sectional of GBD 2021 and WHO surveillance systems.International journal of surgery (London, England) · 2026Article
- Analysis of the epidemiological characteristics of pulmonary tuberculosis in Shijiazhuang, China 2010-2023.Frontiers in public health · 2025Article
- Global burden of pneumoconiosis from 1990 to 2021: a comprehensive analysis of incidence, mortality, and socio-demographic inequalities in 204 countries and territories.Frontiers in public health · 2025Article
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3 authors.
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Abstract
Background: Tuberculosis (TB) is one of the oldest infectious diseases and continues to be a major killer of human beings. This paper was designed to provide insights into the disease burden of TB. Methods: The data was retrieved and downloaded from the latest GBD database. Joinpoint regression was done for the temporal trend analysis. The age-period-cohort model was introduced to get further insights into the independent effects of age, period, and cohort. The BAPC model was utilized to predict ASIR and ASMR from 2022 to 2036. Results: From 1990 to 2021, the ASPR dropped from 31,446 (95% UI: 27,902 to 35,142) to 30,557 (95% UI: 27,693 to 33,531) per 100,000 people, and ASDALYR dropped from 719 (95% UI: 611, 837) to 76 (95% UI: 63, 94) per 100,000 people with an AAPC of -7.009 (95% CI: -7.219, -6.799). ASIR and ASMR decreased from 109 (95% UI: 95, 125) to 36 (95% UI: 33, 40) and from 20 (95% UI: 17, 24) to 2 (95% UI: 2, 3) per 100,000 people, respectively. Men had a higher TB burden than women. The age-period-cohort analysis showed the age effect represented significant fluctuations with a valley at age 5 for incidence rate, and a similar but relatively simple pattern for death rate. Period effect and cohort effect showed both incidence and mortality rates significantly decreased with advancing time points and more recent birth cohorts. At the current decline rate, the ASIR and ASMR would be 26.12 (95%CI: 15.75, 36.48) per 100,000 people and 1.13 (95%CI: 0.45, 1.81) per 100,000 people in 2030, respectively. And the ASIR would be 21.96 (95%CI: 6.14, 37.79) per 100,000 people in 2035. Conclusion: TB burden in China has decreased significantly overall in the past years. However, it is still hard to achieve the national goal of "End TB" by 2035, which means more effective strategies for TB prevention and control are urgently needed. Effective strategies aimed at men should include increasing awareness of tuberculosis among both the general population and healthcare workers, promoting smoking cessation and alcohol reduction, enhancing disease screening and treatment access, and providing psychological support and care.
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