ArticleTobacco induced diseases2025
The impact of goods and services tax increase on economic crime: Evidence from China's tobacco tax hike.
Article in Tobacco induced diseases, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.
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1 citing paper in PubMed.
- The impact of smoke-free legislation on the illegal cigarette trade in China: A longitudinal study.Tobacco induced diseases · 2026Article
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Abstract
introductionDespite the acknowledged interconnection between socioeconomic environment and economic crime, research on the relationship between Goods and Services Tax (GST) and economic crime is scarce because of their complicated relationship. This study examines the impact of the GST increase on the illicit tobacco trade.
methodsBased on China's tobacco excise tax shock in 2015, this study employs a difference-in-difference (DID) method to analyze the impact of the GST increase on economic crime. Panel data used in this research are collected by combining prefecture-level socioeconomic data with smuggling data from 2011 to 2016, including variables such as economic crime, wages, GDP per capita, and population. Economic crime, our core dependent variable, is evaluated by the seized-illegal value of smuggling tobacco (SIVST). In order to estimate the heterogeneity effect of tax hikes by region, we classify prefectures into three groups and add a triple interaction term into the regression model.
resultsWe find that economic crime will be further elevated in places where it was initially higher, stimulated by the excise tax hike. Specifically, areas with high per capita tobacco smuggling in 2014 showed a significant increase in cigarette crime following the 2015 cigarette excise tax increase. For every 1-unit increase in per capita illicit trade in cigarettes in the region in 2014, the local illicit trade increased by 0.25 units after 2015. Heterogeneity analysis shows that the impact of GST increase on the SIVST among prefectures is more pronounced among the coastal prefectures. At the same time, there is no significant difference between border and central prefectures.
conclusionsTo mitigate the adverse effects of GST increases on economic crime, governments should implement measures to combat tobacco smuggling, particularly in regions with prevalent criminal activity. This is especially crucial when policymakers opt to raise tobacco taxes for fiscal purposes or tobacco control initiatives.
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