Quantifying Metagenomic Strain Associations from Microbiomes with Anpan.

Genetic and genomic variation among microbial strains can dramatically influence their phenotypes and environmental impact, including on human health. However, inferential methods for quantifying these differences have been lacking. Strain-level metagenomic profiling data has several features that make traditional statistical methods challenging to use, including high dimensionality, extreme variation among samples, and complex phylogenetic relatedness. We present Anpan, a set of quantitative methods addressing three key challenges in microbiome strain epidemiology. First, adaptive filtering designed to interrogate microbial strain gene carriage is combined with linear models to identify strain-specific genetic elements associated with host health outcomes and other phenotypes. Second, phylogenetic generalized linear mixed models are used to characterize the association of sub-species lineages with such phenotypes. Finally, random effects models are used to identify pathways more likely to be retained or lost by outcome-associated strains. We validated our methods by simulation, showing that we achieve more accurate effect size estimation and a lower false positive rate compared to alternative methodologies. We then applied our methods to a dataset of 1,262 colorectal cancer patients, identifying functionally adaptive genes and strong phylogenetic effects associated with CRC status, sometimes complementing and sometimes extending known species-level microbiome CRC biomarkers. Anpan's methods have been implemented as a publicly available R library to support microbial community strain and genetic epidemiology in a variety of contexts, environments, and phenotypes.