Evidence map›Paper›PMID 39824819›Full record

Trial reportNature communications2025

Neutralizing antibody immune correlates in COVAIL trial recipients of an mRNA second COVID-19 vaccine boost.

Bo Zhang, Youyi Fong, Lauren Dang, Jonathan Fintzi, Shiyu Chen, Jing Wang, Nadine G Rouphael, Angela R Branche, David J Diemert, Ann R Falsey and 38 more

Registry-linked trialAbstract readRandomized Controlled Trial
In one paragraph

Trial report in Nature communications, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. It is linked to trial NCT05289037 (Phase 2 Clinical Trial to Optimize Immune Coverage of SARS-CoV-2 Existing and Emerging Variants), which is not on this map. Cited by 11 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
11citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

NCT05289037 phase2completednot on this map

Phase 2 Clinical Trial to Optimize Immune Coverage of SARS-CoV-2 Existing and Emerging Variants

TypeinterventionalSponsorNational Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID)Ran2022 to 2023Enrolled1,270ConditionsCOVID-19ArmsAS03, BNT162b2, BNT162b2 (B.1.1.529), BNT162b2 (B.1.351), BNT162b2 bivalent (wildtype and Omicron BA.1)
3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

11 citing papers in PubMed.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

48 authors.

Bo ZhangVaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-4381-1124
Youyi FongVaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA.
Lauren DangBiostatistics Research Branch, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA.
Jonathan FintziBiostatistics Research Branch, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA.
Shiyu ChenVaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-2902-0403
Jing WangClinical Monitoring Research Program Directorate, Frederick National Laboratory for Cancer Research, Frederick, MD, USA.
Nadine G RouphaelHope Clinic, Emory University, Decatur, GA, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-2512-7919
Angela R BrancheVaccine and Treatment Evaluation Unit, University of Rochester, Rochester, NY, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-7742-5352
David J DiemertGeorge Washington Vaccine Research Unit, George Washington University, Washington, DC, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-2789-0512
Ann R FalseyVaccine and Treatment Evaluation Unit, University of Rochester, Rochester, NY, USA.
Daniel S GraciaaHope Clinic, Emory University, Decatur, GA, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-9484-8488
Lindsey R BadenDepartment of Medicine, Brigham and Women's Hospital, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0009-0004-1752-1926
Sharon E FreyCenter for Vaccine Development, Saint Louis University, St Louis, MO, USA.
Jennifer A WhitakerDepartment of Molecular Virology and Microbiology and Department of Medicine, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, TX, USA.
Susan J LittleDivision of Infectious Diseases and Global Public Health, Department of Medicine, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, CA, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-7645-9737
Satoshi KamidaniCenter for Childhood Infections and Vaccines, Children's Healthcare of Atlanta, Atlanta, GA, USA.
Emmanuel B WalterDuke Human Vaccine Institute, Duke University School of Medicine, Durham, NC, USA.
Richard M NovakProject WISH, University of Illinois at Chicago, Chicago, IL, USA.
Richard RuppDepartment of Pediatrics, University of Texas Medical Branch, Galveston, TX, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-9659-1217
Lisa A JacksonKaiser Permanente Washington Health Research Institute, Seattle, WA, USA.
Chenchen YuVaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA.
Craig A MagaretVaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-5056-2664
Cindy MolitorVaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA.
Bhavesh BorateVaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA.
Sydney BuschDepartment of Biostatistics and Bioinformatics, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, GA, USA.
David BenkeserDepartment of Biostatistics and Bioinformatics, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, GA, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-1019-8343
Antonia NetzlCenter for Pathogen Evolution, Department of Zoology, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-8034-2382
Derek J SmithCenter for Pathogen Evolution, Department of Zoology, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-2393-1890
Tara M BabuDivision of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, Department of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.
Angelica C KottkampVaccine and Treatment Evaluation Unit, Manhattan Research Clinic, New York University Grossman School of Medicine, New York, NY, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-4103-1666
Anne F LuetkemeyerDivision of HIV, Infectious Diseases and Global Medicine, Zuckerberg San Francisco General Hospital, University of California, San Francisco, CA, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-0911-1578
Lilly C ImmergluckClinical Research Center, Department of Microbiology, Biochemistry, and Immunology, Morehouse School of Medicine, Atlanta, GA, USA.
Rachel M PrestiDepartment of Medicine, Washington University School of Medicine, St Louis, MO, USA.
Martín BäckerDepartment of Internal Medicine, University of Utah Schoole of Medicine, Salt Lake City, Utah, USA.
Patricia L WinokurDepartment of Medicine, University of Iowa College of Medicine, Iowa City, IA, USA.
Siham M MahgoubHoward University College of Medicine, Howard University Hospital, Washington, DC, USA.
Paul A GoepfertDepartment of Medicine, University of Alabama at Birmingham, Birmingham, AL, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-8441-5737
Dahlene N FuscoDepartment of Medicine, Tulane University School of Medicine, New Orleans, LA, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-5629-0110
Robert L AtmarDepartment of Molecular Virology and Microbiology and Department of Medicine, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, TX, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-9989-6772
Christine M PosavadInfectious Diseases Clinical Research Consortium (IDCRC) Laboratory Operations Unit, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA.
Jinjian MuThe Emmes Company LLC, Rockville, MD, USA.
Mat MakowskiThe Emmes Company LLC, Rockville, MD, USA.
Mamodikoe K MakheneDivision of Microbiology and Infectious Diseases, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA.
Seema U NayakDivision of Microbiology and Infectious Diseases, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA.
Paul C RobertsDivision of Microbiology and Infectious Diseases, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-4452-141X
Peter B GilbertVaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-2662-9427
Dean FollmannBiostatistics Research Branch, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA. dfollmann@niaid.nih.gov.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-4073-0393
Coronavirus Variant Immunologic Landscape Trial (COVAIL) Study Team

Funding

SDMC: HIV Vaccine Trials NetworkUM1AI068635 · NIAID · FRED HUTCHINSON CANCER RESEARCH CENTER · PI Peter B. Gilbert, Yunda Huang · 2011 to 2026
$385.9M
Statistical Data Coordinating Center: Monkeypox Clinical Research Support75N93021C00012 · NIAID · THE EMMES COMPANY, LLC · PI EWELL, MARIAN · 2021 to 2025
$150.3M
Leadership Group for the Infectious Diseases Clinical Research Consortium (IDCRCLG) - Momi-Vax DMID #21-0004 {Supplement #6}UM1AI148684 · NIAID · EMORY UNIVERSITY · PI DAVID S STEPHENS · 2020 to 2026
$77.2M
NIAID Centers of Excellence for Influenza Research and Response: Universal Influenza Vaccine Research Activities75N93021C00014 · NIAID · ICAHN SCHOOL OF MEDICINE AT MOUNT SINAI · PI GARCIA-SASTRE, ADOLFO · 2021 to 2025
$62.6M
Vaccine and Treatment Evaluation Unit at Saint Louis University - DMID 20-0034UM1AI148685 · NIAID · SAINT LOUIS UNIVERSITY · PI Daniel F. Hoft · 2020 to 2026
$34.6M
University of Washington Vaccine and Treatment Evaluation Unit - DMID 21-0012UM1AI148573 · NIAID · UNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTON · PI Raymond Scott McClelland, Anna Wald · 2020 to 2026
$26.6M
Statistical Methods in HIV Vaccine Efficacy TrialsR37AI054165 · NIAID · FRED HUTCHINSON CANCER RESEARCH CENTER · PI Peter B. Gilbert · 2010 to 2026
$6.7M
CLINICAL CENTRAL LABORATORY SERVICES TO SUPPORT COVID-19 VACCINE STUDIES75N93021D00021 · NIAID · PI BEECH, TIFFANI · 2021 to 2023
$1.6M
CLC NIH HHS C0000008NIAID NIH HHS 75N93021C00012NIAID NIH HHS 75N93021C00014NIAID NIH HHS 75N93021D00021NIAID NIH HHS R37 AI054165NIAID NIH HHS UM1 AI068635NIAID NIH HHS UM1 AI148573NIAID NIH HHS UM1 AI148684NIAID NIH HHS UM1 AI148685U.S. Department of Health & Human Services | Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA) 75A50122C00008U.S. Department of Health & Human Services | Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA) Contract no. 75A50122C00008U.S. Department of Health & Human Services | NIH | National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID) contract 75N910D00024, task order 75N91022F00007U.S. Department of Health & Human Services | NIH | National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID) contract 75N910D00024, task order no. 75N91022F00007U.S. Department of Health & Human Services | NIH | National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID) R37AI054165U.S. Department of Health & Human Services | NIH | National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID) UM1AI148684
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Neutralizing antibody titer has been a surrogate endpoint for guiding COVID-19 vaccine approval and use, although the pandemic's evolution and the introduction of variant-adapted vaccine boosters raise questions as to this surrogate's contemporary performance. For 985 recipients of an mRNA second bivalent or monovalent booster containing various Spike inserts [Prototype (Ancestral), Beta, Delta, and/or Omicron BA.1 or BA.4/5] in the COVAIL trial (NCT05289037), titers against 5 strains were assessed as correlates of risk of symptomatic COVID-19 ("COVID-19") and as correlates of relative (Pfizer-BioNTech Omicron vs. Prototype) booster protection against COVID-19 over 6 months of follow-up during the BA.2-BA.5 Omicron-dominant period. Consistently across the Moderna and Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine platforms and across all variant Spike inserts assessed, both peak and exposure-proximal ("predicted-at-exposure") titers correlated with lower Omicron COVID-19 risk in individuals previously infected with SARS-CoV-2, albeit significantly less so in naïve individuals [e.g., exposure-proximal hazard ratio per 10-fold increase in BA.1 titer 0.74 (95% CI 0.59, 0.94) for naïve vs. 0.41 (95% CI 0.23, 0.64) for non-naïve; interaction p = 0.013]. Neutralizing antibody titer was a strong inverse correlate of Omicron COVID-19 in non-naïve individuals and a weaker correlate in naïve individuals, posing questions about how prior infection alters the neutralization correlate.

Indexed as

Antibodies, NeutralizingAntibodies, ViralCOVID-19COVID-19 VaccinesSARS-CoV-2AdultFemaleHumansImmunization, SecondaryMaleMiddle AgedmRNA VaccinesSpike Glycoprotein, CoronavirusVaccines, SyntheticAntibodies, NeutralizingAntibodies, ViralCOVID-19 VaccinesmRNA VaccinesSpike Glycoprotein, Coronavirusspike protein, SARS-CoV-2Vaccines, Synthetic

Identifiers

PMID39824819
PMCPMC11748719

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Registered trials

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.