ArticleBMJ open2025
Development and external validation of the SMA
Article in BMJ open, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Authors and funding
8 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
objectivesAneurysmal subarachnoid haemorrhage (ASAH) is a severe stroke type, preventable by screening for intracranial aneurysms followed by treatment in high-risk individuals. We aimed to develop and validate a risk prediction model for ASAH in the general population to identify high-risk individuals.
designWe used the population-based prospective cohort studies of the United Kingdom (UK) Biobank for model development and the Trøndelag Health (HUNT) Study for model validation.
participantsParticipants missing data were excluded. A total of 456 856 individuals from the UK Biobank and 46 483 individuals from the HUNT Study were included. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: Incident ASAH identified using the International Classification of Diseases codes, ICD-9 430 and ICD-10 I600 to I609 codes.
resultsIn the development cohort, ASAH occurred in 738 (0.2%) during 5 407 909 person-years of follow-up. We developed a multivariable Cox regression model to identify predictors for ASAH. Predictive performance was assessed using discrimination and calibration, and we corrected for overfitting using bootstrapping techniques. Predictors for ASAH were sex (S), diabetes mellitus (M), age and alcohol consumption (A
conclusionsOur SMA
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Registered trials
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