ArticleHealth promotion and chronic disease prevention in Canada : research, policy and practice2025
Implementing a smoke-free generation policy for Canada: estimates of the long-term impacts.
Article in Health promotion and chronic disease prevention in Canada : research, policy and practice, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
0 citing papers in PubMed.
No citing paper in PubMed yet.
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
1 author.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
introductionThe aim of this study was to assess the potential impacts of the introduction of a smoke-free generation (SFG) policy in Canada with a perpetual ban on cigarette sales to anyone born after 2009 instigated on 1 January 2025.
methodsAn existing Canadian model relating to smoking cessation was adapted and augmented to assess the impact of an SFG policy on quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), life expectancy, health care costs, smoking-related taxes, and Canadian tobacco industry gross domestic product (GDP). The cumulative impact of the policy for the entire Canadian population was assessed for time horizons up to 90 years with an annual discount rate of 1.5%.
resultsAfter 50 years, this SFG policy would lead to 476 814 more QALYs, $2.3 billion less in health care costs, $7.4 billion less in smoking-related taxes and a $3.1 billion reduction in tobacco industry GDP. The combined value of health benefits gained and health care costs averted would exceed the sum of tax revenues foregone and reduced GDP, if the value of a QALY was at least $17 147. Use of higher discount rates and inclusion of unrelated health care costs had little impact on the interpretation of the results.
conclusionThe implementation of an SFG policy will bring substantive health benefits to the population in Canada. Although health care cost savings are lower than the combination of lost tax revenues and the decline in the GDP from the Canadian tobacco industry, the value of the health benefits realized outweigh the negative offsets.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.