ArticleJournal of medical virology2025
Defining the Critical Requisites for Accurate Simulation of SARS-CoV-2 Viral Dynamics: Patient Characteristics and Data Collection Protocol.
Article in Journal of medical virology, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
1 citing paper in PubMed.
- Age- and vaccination status-dependent isolation guidelines based on simulation of SARS-CoV-2 Delta cases in Singapore.Communications medicine · 2025Article
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Authors and funding
14 authors.
Funding
Abstract
Mathematical models of viral dynamics are crucial in understanding infection trajectories. However, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) viral load data often includes limited sparse observations with significant heterogeneity. This study aims to: (1) understand the impact of patient characteristics in shaping the temporal viral load trajectory and (2) establish a data collection protocol (DCP) to reliably reconstruct individual viral load trajectories. We collected longitudinal viral load data for SARS-CoV-2 Delta and Omicron variants from 243 patients in Singapore (2021-2022). A viral dynamics model was calibrated using patients' age, symptom presence, and vaccination status. We accessed associations between these patient characteristics and aspects of viral dynamics using linear regression models. We evaluated the accuracy of viral load trajectory estimation under different simulated DCPs by varying patient numbers, test frequencies, and test intervals. Older unvaccinated individuals had a longer viral shedding duration due to lower infection and cell death rates. Higher peak viral loads were found in older, symptomatic, and vaccinated individuals, with earlier peaks in younger vaccinated individuals. Symptom presence and vaccination resulted in a shorter time from infection to diagnosis. To accurately estimate viral dynamics, more frequent tests, longer test intervals, and larger patient samples are required. For 500 patients, a 21-day follow-up with measurements every 3 days and an 8-day follow-up with daily measurements was optimal for the Delta and Omicron variants, respectively. Patient characteristics significantly impacted viral dynamics. Our analytic approach and recommended DCPs can enhance preparedness and response to emerging pathogens beyond SARS-CoV-2.
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