ArticlePhysics and imaging in radiation oncology2025
Normal tissue complication probability model for severe radiation-induced lymphopenia in patients with pancreatic cancer treated with concurrent chemoradiotherapy.
Article in Physics and imaging in radiation oncology, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Abstract
Background and purpose: Radiation-induced lymphopenia (RIL) may be associated with a worse prognosis in pancreatic cancer. This study aimed to develop a normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) model to predict severe RIL in patients with pancreatic cancer undergoing concurrent chemoradiotherapy (CCRT). Materials and methods: We reviewed pancreatic cancer patients treated at our facility for model training and internal validation. Subsequently, we reviewed data from three other facilities to validate model fit externally. An absolute lymphocyte count (ALC) of <0.5 × 10 Results: Among the 114 patients in the training set, 78 had severe RIL. LASSO showed that low baseline ALC, large planning target volume, and high percentage of bilateral kidneys receiving ≥ 5Gy were selected as parameters of the NTCP model for severe RIL. The AUC and scaled Brier score were 0.91 and 0.49, respectively. Internal validation yielded an average AUC of 0.92. In the external validation with 68 patients, the AUC and scaled Brier score was 0.83 and 0.30, respectively. Calibration plots showed good conformity. Conclusions: The NTCP model for severe RIL during CCRT for pancreatic cancer, developed and validated in this study, demonstrated good predictive performance. This model can be used to evaluate and compare the risk of RIL.
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