Evidence map›Paper›PMID 39810076›Full record

SynthesisBMC geriatrics2025

Risk prediction models for falls in hospitalized older patients: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

Anli Mao, Jie Su, Mingzhu Ren, Shuying Chen, Huafang Zhang

Abstract readSystematic ReviewMeta-Analysis
In one paragraph

Synthesis in BMC geriatrics, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 14 papers, 5 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
14citing papers in PubMed, 5 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

14 citing papers in PubMed, 5 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Pooled it
  3. Pooled it
  4. Pooled it
  5. Pooled it
  6. Article
  7. Risk Profiles in Hospitalized Adults Based on Functional Capacity, Pressure Injury Risk, and Fall Risk: A Cluster and Multiple Correspondence Analysis.Journal of nursing scholarship : an official publication of Sigma Theta Tau International Honor Society of Nursing · 2026
    Observational
  8. Article
  9. Fall Prevention and Geriatric Nursing.Healthcare (Basel, Switzerland) · 2026
    Article
  10. Article
  11. Article
  12. Article
  13. From framework to frontline: Embedding enterprise risk management into emergency department fall prevention.Journal of healthcare risk management : the journal of the American Society for Healthcare Risk Management · 2025
    Article
  14. Review
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

5 authors.

Anli MaoDepartment of Nursing, the Fourth Affiliated Hospital of School of Medicine, and International School of Medicine, International Institutes of Medicine, Zhejiang University, Yiwu, 322000, China.
Jie SuDepartment of Nursing, the Fourth Affiliated Hospital of School of Medicine, and International School of Medicine, International Institutes of Medicine, Zhejiang University, Yiwu, 322000, China.
Mingzhu RenDepartment of Nursing, the Fourth Affiliated Hospital of School of Medicine, and International School of Medicine, International Institutes of Medicine, Zhejiang University, Yiwu, 322000, China.
Shuying ChenDepartment of Nursing, the Fourth Affiliated Hospital of School of Medicine, and International School of Medicine, International Institutes of Medicine, Zhejiang University, Yiwu, 322000, China.
Huafang ZhangDepartment of Nursing, the Fourth Affiliated Hospital of School of Medicine, and International School of Medicine, International Institutes of Medicine, Zhejiang University, Yiwu, 322000, China. wuyizhangyichi@zju.edu.cn.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundExisting fall risk assessment tools in clinical settings often lack accuracy. Although an increasing number of fall risk prediction models have been developed for hospitalized older patients in recent years, it remains unclear how useful these models are for clinical practice and future research.

objectivesTo systematically review published studies of fall risk prediction models for hospitalized older adults.

methodsA search was performed of the Web of Science, PubMed, Cochrane Library, CINAHL, MEDLINE, and Embase databases: to retrieve studies of predictive models related to falls in hospitalized older adults from their inception until January 11, 2024. Extraction of data from included studies, including study design, data sources, sample size, predictors, model development and performance, etc. Risk of bias and applicability were assessed using the Prediction Model Risk of Bias Assessment Tool (PROBAST) checklist.

resultsA total of 8086 studies were retrieved, and after screening, 13 prediction models from 13 studies were included. Four models were externally validated. Eight models reported discrimination metrics and two models reported calibration metrics. The most common predictors of falls were mobility, fall history, medications, and psychiatric disorders. All studies indicated a high risk of bias, primarily due to inadequate study design and methodological flaws. The AUC values of 8 models ranged from 0.630 to 0.851.

conclusionsIn the present study, all included studies had a high risk of bias, primarily due to the lack of prospective study design, inappropriate data analysis, and the absence of robust external validation. Future studies should prioritize the use of rigorous methodologies for the external validation of fall risk prediction models in hospitalized older adults.

trial registrationThe study was registered in the International Database of Prospectively Registered Systematic Reviews (PROSPERO) CRD42024503718.

Indexed as

Accidental FallsHospitalizationAgedAged, 80 and overHumansRisk AssessmentRisk FactorsAgedFallsHospitalized older adultMeta-analysisRisk prediction modelSystematic review

Identifiers

PMID39810076
PMCPMC11730783

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY-NC-ND
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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.