Evidence map›Paper›PMID 39809761›Full record

ArticleNature communications2025

A multi-model study to inform the United States' 2035 NDC.

Gokul Iyer, Alicia Zhao, Adriana Bryant, John Bistline, Geoffrey Blanford, Ryna Cui, Allen A Fawcett, Rachel Goldstein, Amanda Levin, Megan Mahajan and 3 more

Erratum issuedAbstract read
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in Nature communications, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. An erratum has been issued. Cited by 1 paper.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
1citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

1 citing paper in PubMed.

  1. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

13 authors.

Gokul IyerCenter for Global Sustainability, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, USA. giyer@umd.edu.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-3565-7526
Alicia ZhaoCenter for Global Sustainability, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, USA.
Adriana BryantCenter for Global Sustainability, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, USA.
John BistlineEPRI, Palo Alto, CA, USA.
Geoffrey BlanfordEPRI, Palo Alto, CA, USA.
Ryna CuiCenter for Global Sustainability, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, USA.
Allen A FawcettCenter for Global Sustainability, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-2980-0402
Rachel GoldsteinEnergy Innovation, San Francisco, CA, USA.
Amanda LevinNatural Resources Defense Council, Washington, D.C, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0009-0002-8068-1311
Megan MahajanEnergy Innovation, San Francisco, CA, USA.
Haewon McJeonKAIST Graduate School of Green Growth & Sustainability, Daejeon, Korea.
Robbie OrvisEnergy Innovation, San Francisco, CA, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-7511-2611
Nathan HultmanCenter for Global Sustainability, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-0483-2210

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

In 2025, countries are expected to submit a third round of nationally determined contributions (NDCs) that outline emission reduction goals for 2035. These new NDCs will be important for global alignment with the Paris Agreement's long-term goals. Setting an ambitious and plausible 2035 NDC in the United States (US) could be crucial in motivating high levels of ambition globally. This study brings together four US modeling teams to show that an expanded set of federal and state policies beyond current policies could achieve economy-wide emissions reductions of 56-67% below 2005 levels by 2035. By contrast, current policies result in 34-44% reductions. These potential policies significantly close the gap relative to the official US pledge. They also imply 2-4 times increase in renewable capacity additions, 73-100% reduction in electricity generation from unabated fossil fuels, and 83-100% share of electric vehicles in new vehicles sales. This study provides a framework for decisionmakers to use modeling as an input to inform ambitious and plausible pledges.

Identifiers

PMID39809761
PMCPMC11733142

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY-NC-ND
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.