Evidence map›Paper›PMID 39806510›Full record

ReviewDiagnostic and prognostic research2025

Risk prediction tools for pressure injury occurrence: an umbrella review of systematic reviews reporting model development and validation methods.

Bethany Hillier, Katie Scandrett, April Coombe, Tina Hernandez-Boussard, Ewout Steyerberg, Yemisi Takwoingi, Vladica Velickovic, Jacqueline Dinnes

Abstract readReview
In one paragraph

Review in Diagnostic and prognostic research, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 5 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
5citing papers in PubMed, 2 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

5 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Pooled it
  3. Article
  4. Article
  5. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

8 authors.

Bethany HillierDepartment of Applied Health Sciences, College of Medicine and Health, University of Birmingham, Edgbaston, Birmingham, UK.
Katie ScandrettDepartment of Applied Health Sciences, College of Medicine and Health, University of Birmingham, Edgbaston, Birmingham, UK.
April CoombeDepartment of Applied Health Sciences, College of Medicine and Health, University of Birmingham, Edgbaston, Birmingham, UK.
Tina Hernandez-BoussardDepartment of Medicine, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA.
Ewout SteyerbergDepartment of Biomedical Data Sciences, Leiden University Medical Center, Leiden, The Netherlands.
Yemisi TakwoingiDepartment of Applied Health Sciences, College of Medicine and Health, University of Birmingham, Edgbaston, Birmingham, UK.
Vladica VelickovicEvidence Generation Department, HARTMANN GROUP, Heidenheim, Germany.
Jacqueline DinnesDepartment of Applied Health Sciences, College of Medicine and Health, University of Birmingham, Edgbaston, Birmingham, UK. j.dinnes@bham.ac.uk.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-1343-7335

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundPressure injuries (PIs) place a substantial burden on healthcare systems worldwide. Risk stratification of those who are at risk of developing PIs allows preventive interventions to be focused on patients who are at the highest risk. The considerable number of risk assessment scales and prediction models available underscores the need for a thorough evaluation of their development, validation, and clinical utility. Our objectives were to identify and describe available risk prediction tools for PI occurrence, their content and the development and validation methods used.

methodsThe umbrella review was conducted according to Cochrane guidance. MEDLINE, Embase, CINAHL, EPISTEMONIKOS, Google Scholar, and reference lists were searched to identify relevant systematic reviews. The risk of bias was assessed using adapted AMSTAR-2 criteria. Results were described narratively. All included reviews contributed to building a comprehensive list of risk prediction tools.

resultsWe identified 32 eligible systematic reviews only seven of which described the development and validation of risk prediction tools for PI. Nineteen reviews assessed the prognostic accuracy of the tools and 11 assessed clinical effectiveness. Of the seven reviews reporting model development and validation, six included only machine learning models. Two reviews included external validations of models, although only one review reported any details on external validation methods or results. This was also the only review to report measures of both discrimination and calibration. Five reviews presented measures of discrimination, such as the area under the curve (AUC), sensitivities, specificities, F1 scores, and G-means. For the four reviews that assessed the risk of bias assessment using the PROBAST tool, all models but one were found to be at high or unclear risk of bias.

conclusionsAvailable tools do not meet current standards for the development or reporting of risk prediction models. The majority of tools have not been externally validated. Standardised and rigorous approaches to risk prediction model development and validation are needed.

trial registrationThe protocol was registered on the Open Science Framework ( https://osf.io/tepyk ).

Indexed as

DevelopmentExternal validationInternalOverviewPredictionPressure injuryPrognosticUlcer

Identifiers

PMID39806510
PMCPMC11730812

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.