ArticleNature medicine2025
Lifetime risk and projected burden of dementia.
Article in Nature medicine, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. It is linked to trial NCT07651787 (Neurovascular and Mitochondrial Mechanisms of Transcranial Photobiomodulation in Vascular Mild Cognitive Impairment), which is not on this map. Cited by 95 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neurovascular and Mitochondrial Mechanisms of Transcranial Photobiomodulation in Vascular Mild Cognitive Impairment
Who cites it
95 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Herpes simplex virus 2 and dementia risk: a systematic review and meta-analysis.Frontiers in dementia · 2026Pooled it
- Efficacy of a language-concordant community health worker intervention to improve community-to-clinic linkage for dementia care: results of the randomized trial PLAN.Alzheimer's & dementia : the journal of the Alzheimer's Association · 2026Trial
- Trial
- Optimizing frailty care: an analysis of dual exercise targets and cognitive function among frail older adults.GeroScience · 2026Article
- Urinary metabolomics data and cognitive performance in an adult population.Metabolic brain disease · 2026Article
- Individual-level Social Vulnerability and Cognitive Function Among Older Adults in the United States National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2026Article
- A strategic pathway for the ethical development of AI tools in dementia care.Alzheimer's & dementia : the journal of the Alzheimer's Association · 2026Article
- SynthPET: A 3D generative AI approach for FDG-PET image synthesis from T1-weighted MRI and ASL CBF in Alzheimer's disease.Alzheimer's & dementia : the journal of the Alzheimer's Association · 2026Article
- Article
- Dilating the aging clock with light.Innovation (Cambridge (Mass.)) · 2026Review
- Impact of Preexisting Dementia on Mortality, Readmissions, and Complications After Surgical Repair of Hip Fractures: A Cohort Analysis.Journal of the American Academy of Orthopaedic Surgeons. Global research & reviews · 2026Article
- Serum sodium, tonicity, and risk of dementia in cohort and healthcare populations.Alzheimer's & dementia : the journal of the Alzheimer's Association · 2026Article
- Temporal sequencing of sensory impairments and frailty reveals vulnerability-dependent dementia risk.Research square · 2026Article
- National Surveillance-Based Retrospective Longitudinal Analysis of Dementia Prevalence Trends in the Republic of Korea, 2016-2025, with a One-Year 2026 Forecast Using National Health Insurance Service Administrative Data.Journal of clinical medicine · 2026Article
- Association of Dementia With Total Ankle Arthroplasty and Ankle Arthrodesis Outcomes: A Short Report.Foot & ankle orthopaedics · 2026Article
- Extracellular vesicle-mediated bidirectional communication between the brain and peripheral organs in Alzheimer's disease: evidence, mechanisms, and translational perspectives.Journal of nanobiotechnology · 2026Review
- Review
- Gateway: patient olfactory neurons for large-scale discovery in neurodegenerative disease.bioRxiv : the preprint server for biology · 2026Article
- Sex-dependent interferon signaling contributes to female-biased vulnerability in Alzheimer's disease.Journal of neuroinflammation · 2026Article
- Association of Geriatric Emergency Department Care With Hospitalization and Mortality in Older Adults.Journal of the American Geriatrics Society · 2026Article
35 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
13 authors.
Funding
Abstract
Understanding the lifetime risk of dementia can inform public health planning and improve patient engagement in prevention. Using data from a community-based, prospective cohort study (n = 15,043; 26.9% Black race, 55.1% women and 30.8% with at least one apolipoprotein E4 (APOE ε4) allele), we estimated the lifetime risk of dementia (from age 55 years to 95 years), with mortality treated as a competing event. We applied lifetime risk estimates to US Census projections to evaluate the annual number of incident dementia cases from 2020 to 2060. The lifetime risk of dementia after age 55 years was 42% (95% confidence interval: 41-43). Rates were substantially higher in women, Black adults and APOE ε4 carriers, with lifetime risks ranging from approximately 45% to 60% in these populations. The number of US adults who will develop dementia each year was projected to increase from approximately 514,000 in 2020 to approximately 1 million in 2060. The relative growth in new dementia cases was especially pronounced for Black adults. These results highlight the urgent need for policies that enhance healthy aging, with a focus on health equity.
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What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.