Evidence map›Paper›PMID 39805829›Full record

ArticleNature communications2025

Nonlinear exposure-response associations of daytime, nighttime, and day-night compound heatwaves with mortality amid climate change.

Jiangdong Liu, Ho Kim, Masahiro Hashizume, Whanhee Lee, Yasushi Honda, Satbyul Estella Kim, Cheng He, Haidong Kan, Renjie Chen

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Nature communications, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 12 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
12citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

12 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
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  7. Observational
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

9 authors.

Jiangdong LiuSchool of Public Health, Shanghai Institute of Infectious Disease and Biosecurity, Key Lab of Public Health Safety of the Ministry of Education and NHC Key Lab of Health Technology Assessment, Fudan University, Shanghai, China.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-8762-3571
Ho KimDepartment of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, Graduate School of Public Health, Seoul National University, Seoul, Republic of Korea.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-7472-3752
Masahiro HashizumeDepartment of Global Health Policy, Graduate School of Medicine, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-4720-1750
Whanhee LeeSchool of Biomedical Convergence Engineering, Pusan National University, Yangsan, South Korea.
Yasushi HondaCenter for Climate Change Adaptation, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan.
Satbyul Estella KimCenter for Climate Change Adaptation, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-7193-9694
Cheng HeInstitute of Epidemiology, Helmholtz Zentrum München-German Research Center for Environmental Health, Neuherberg, Germany.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-8470-0834
Haidong KanSchool of Public Health, Shanghai Institute of Infectious Disease and Biosecurity, Key Lab of Public Health Safety of the Ministry of Education and NHC Key Lab of Health Technology Assessment, Fudan University, Shanghai, China. kanh@fudan.edu.cn.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-1871-8999
Renjie ChenSchool of Public Health, Shanghai Institute of Infectious Disease and Biosecurity, Key Lab of Public Health Safety of the Ministry of Education and NHC Key Lab of Health Technology Assessment, Fudan University, Shanghai, China. chenrenjie@fudan.edu.cn.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-9448-0820

Funding

National Natural Science Foundation of China (National Science Foundation of China) 82430105
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Heatwaves are commonly simplified as binary variables in epidemiological studies, limiting the understanding of heatwave-mortality associations. Here we conduct a multi-country study across 28 East Asian cities that employed the Cumulative Excess Heatwave Index (CEHWI), which represents excess heat accumulation during heatwaves, to explore the potentially nonlinear associations of daytime-only, nighttime-only, and day-night compound heatwaves with mortality from 1981 to 2010. Populations exhibited high adaptability to daytime-only and nighttime-only heatwaves, with non-accidental mortality risks increasing only at higher CEHWI levels (75th-90th percentiles). In contrast, compound heatwaves posed a super-linear increase in mortality risks after the 25th percentile of CEHWI. Associations of heatwaves with cardiovascular mortality mirrored those with non-accidental mortality but were more pronounced at higher CEHWI levels, while significant associations with respiratory mortality emerged at low-to-moderate CEHWI levels. These results highlight the necessity of considering the nonlinear health responses to heatwaves of different types in disease burden assessments and heatwave-health warning systems amid climate change.

Indexed as

Climate ChangeEnvironmental ExposureExtreme HeatHot TemperatureMortalityAdultAgedAsia, EasternCardiovascular DiseasesCitiesFemaleHumansMaleMiddle AgedNonlinear Dynamics

Identifiers

PMID39805829
PMCPMC11729900

What OpenQuestion holds

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LicenceCC BY
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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.