ArticleEnvironmental health and preventive medicine2025
Application of machine learning algorithms in predicting new onset hypertension: a study based on the China Health and Nutrition Survey.
Article in Environmental health and preventive medicine, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers.
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2 citing papers in PubMed.
- Interpretable Machine Learning for Predicting Metabolic Syndrome-Kidney Stone Disease Comorbidity: The Role of Dietary Micronutrients.Food science & nutrition · 2026Article
- Associations between various obesity-related indicators and hypertension: a national cross-sectional survey with 117,609 Chinese adults.Frontiers in public health · 2026Article
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6 authors.
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Abstract
backgroundHypertension is a serious chronic disease that can significantly lead to various cardiovascular diseases, affecting vital organs such as the heart, brain, and kidneys. Our goal is to predict the risk of new onset hypertension using machine learning algorithms and identify the characteristics of patients with new onset hypertension.
methodsWe analyzed data from the 2011 China Health and Nutrition Survey cohort of individuals who were not hypertensive at baseline and had follow-up results available for prediction by 2015. We tested and evaluated the performance of four traditional machine learning algorithms commonly used in epidemiological studies: Logistic Regression, Support Vector Machine, XGBoost, LightGBM, and two deep learning algorithms: TabNet and AMFormer model. We modeled using 16 and 29 features, respectively. SHAP values were applied to select key features associated with new onset hypertension.
resultsA total of 4,982 participants were included in the analysis, of whom 1,017 developed hypertension during the 4-year follow-up. Among the 16-feature models, Logistic Regression had the highest AUC of 0.784(0.775∼0.806). In the 29-feature prediction models, AMFormer performed the best with an AUC of 0.802(0.795∼0.820), and also scored the highest in MCC (0.417, 95%CI: 0.400∼0.434) and F1 (0.503, 95%CI: 0.484∼0.505) metrics, demonstrating superior overall performance compared to the other models. Additionally, key features selected based on the AMFormer, such as age, province, waist circumference, urban or rural location, education level, employment status, weight, WHR, and BMI, played significant roles.
conclusionWe used the AMFormer model for the first time in predicting new onset hypertension and achieved the best results among the six algorithms tested. Key features associated with new onset hypertension can be determined through this algorithm. The practice of machine learning algorithms can further enhance the predictive efficacy of diseases and identify risk factors for diseases.
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