Evidence map›Paper›PMID 39799582›Full record

ArticleAnnals of the New York Academy of Sciences2025

Uncertainties around net-zero climate targets have major impact on greenhouse gas emissions projections.

Michel G J den Elzen, Ioannis Dafnomilis, Leonardo Nascimento, Arthur Beusen, Nicklas Forsell, Joost Gubbels, Mathijs Harmsen, Elena Hooijschuur, Zuelclady Araujo Gutiérrez, Takeshi Kuramochi

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
2citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

2 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
  2. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

10 authors.

Michel G J den ElzenPBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, The Hague, The Netherlands.ORCID 0000-0002-5128-8150
Ioannis DafnomilisPBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, The Hague, The Netherlands.ORCID 0000-0001-5371-2341
Leonardo NascimentoNewClimate Institute, Cologne, Germany.
Arthur BeusenPBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, The Hague, The Netherlands.
Nicklas ForsellInternational Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria.
Joost GubbelsPBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, The Hague, The Netherlands.
Mathijs HarmsenPBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, The Hague, The Netherlands.
Elena HooijschuurPBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, The Hague, The Netherlands.
Zuelclady Araujo GutiérrezInternational Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria.
Takeshi KuramochiNewClimate Institute, Cologne, Germany.

Funding

HORIZON EUROPE Climate, Energy and Mobility ELEVATE 101056873
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Globally, more than 100 countries have adopted net-zero targets. Most studies agree on how this increases the chance of keeping end-of-century global warming below 2°C. However, they typically make assumptions about net-zero targets that do not capture uncertainties related to gas coverage, sector coverage, sinks, and removals. This study aims to analyze the impact of many uncertainty factors on the projected greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2050 for major emitting countries following their net-zero pathways, and their aggregate impact on global GHG emissions. Global emission projections range from 23 to 40 gigatons of CO

Indexed as

Climate ChangeGlobal WarmingGreenhouse EffectGreenhouse GasesCarbon DioxideForecastingHumansUncertaintyCarbon DioxideGreenhouse Gasesclimate change mitigationclimate policyintegrated assessment modelsnet‐zero targetsParis Agreementuncertainty

Identifiers

PMID39799582
PMCPMC11829319

What OpenQuestion holds

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LicenceCC BY
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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.