ArticleBMC psychology2025
Chinese burden of depressive disorders from 1990 to 2021 and prediction for 2030: analysis of data from the global burden of disease study 2021.
Article in BMC psychology, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 14 papers.
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14 citing papers in PubMed.
- Factors associated with depression among tuberculosis patients with HIV co-infection in rural community Thailand.BMC psychology · 2026Article
- Observational
- The association between disease status and health-related quality of life: evidence from a cross-sectional survey across mainland China.Health and quality of life outcomes · 2026Article
- Metabolic profiling in major depressive disorder with high psychological resilience: changes in amino acid and carbohydrate metabolism.BMC psychiatry · 2026Article
- The effectiveness of a multi-dimensional intervention model combining cognitive behavioral therapy and social support in hospitalized depressed patients.BMC psychiatry · 2025Article
- 5-Hydroxymethylfurfural Alleviates Lipopolysaccharide-Induced Depression-like Behaviors by Suppressing Hypothalamic Oxidative Stress and Regulating Neuroinflammation in Mice.Antioxidants (Basel, Switzerland) · 2025Article
- Severe and enduring prostate cancer burden attributable to smoking among old men amid global decline and socioeconomic disparities.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Epidemiological Trends and Projection of Liver Cancer Due to Nonalcoholic Steatohepatitis Among People Aged 55 Years and Older in China From 1990 to 2030: An Analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021.Clinical and translational gastroenterology · 2025Article
- Incidence and prevalence of dysthymia among young adults in China, 1990-2021, with forecasts to 2046: an age-period-cohort analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021.BMC psychiatry · 2025Article
- Global, regional, and national burden of chronic kidney disease due to diabetes mellitus type 2 from 1990 to 2021, with projections to 2036: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021.Frontiers in medicine · 2025Article
- Global trends in the burden of alcohol use disorders in the working-age population from 1990 to 2021 and projections for the next 20 years.Frontiers in public health · 2025Article
- Burden and trends of major depressive disorders among women of childbearing age and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: insights from the global burden of disease study 2021.Frontiers in psychiatry · 2025Article
- Prevalence and Pathogenic Factors of Thyroid Dysfunction in First-Episode and Drug-Naïve Major Depressive Disorder Patients With Fasting Blood Glucose Abnormalities in Early- and Late-Onset Age.Depression and anxiety · 2025Article
- Trends, Global Comparisons, and Projections of the Burden of Malignant Neoplasm of Bone and Articular Cartilage in China Based on GBD 2021.Cancer control : journal of the Moffitt Cancer CenterArticle
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Abstract
backgroundThis study aims to examine the temporal changes in the incidence, prevalence, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of depressive disorders as well as its association with age, period, and birth cohort among Chinese from 1990 to 2021, and forecast the future trends of incidence rates and numbers from 2022 to 2030.
methodsData for analysis were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021. Joinpoint analysis was used to calculate the annual percentage change (APC) and average annual percent change (AAPC) to describe the rates of depressive disorders. Age, period, and cohort model was utilized to disentangle age, period, and birth cohort effects on rates of depressive disorders. Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) analysis was capitalized to forecast the incidence rates and numbers for different sexes and age groups from 2022 to 2030.
resultsThe age-standardized incidence (ASIR, AAPC: -0.35 [95%CI: -0.65, -0.04]), prevalence (ASPR, AAPC: -0.20 [95%CI: -0.24, -0.16]), and DAYLs (AAPC: -0.28 [95%CI: -0.51, -0.05]) rates of both sexes showed a downward trend from 1990 to 2021, despite a volatility growth in recent years (APC in 2019-2021 of ASPR: 0.96 [95%CI: 0.70, 1.23]). Females exhibited a higher burden of depressive disorders compared to males but experienced a more rapid rate of reduction changes. The burden of depressive disorders was most owing to the age effect and period effect in recent years. The ASIR was predicted to decrease in the whole population (males in 2030: 1,546.3 per 100,000 people; females in 2030: 2,465.8 per 100,000 people), but in children, adolescents, and the elderly demonstrate unfavorable trends in the future.
conclusionThe burden of depressive disorders decreased in China from 1990 to 2021 in terms of age-standardized rates, but increased in recent years. Children, adolescents, and the elderly are the risk groups for future depressive disorders. Considering the large population, the increasing fewer children, and the aging trend, as well as the possible long-term effects of COVID-19 on human psychological burden, more sex-age-sensitive social healthcare programs should be considered in the future to minimize the burden of depressive disorders in China.
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