Evidence map›Paper›PMID 39794488›Full record

ArticleScientific reports2025

Machine learning in the prediction of human wellbeing.

Ekaterina Oparina, Caspar Kaiser, Niccolò Gentile, Alexandre Tkatchenko, Andrew E Clark, Jan-Emmanuel De Neve, Conchita D'Ambrosio

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Scientific reports, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 13 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
13citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

13 citing papers in PubMed.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

7 authors.

Ekaterina OparinaLondon School of Economics, London, UK.
Caspar KaiserWarwick Business School, Coventry, UK. caspar.kaiser@wbs.ac.uk.
Niccolò GentileUniversity of Luxembourg, Esch-sur-Alzette, Luxembourg.
Alexandre TkatchenkoUniversity of Luxembourg, Esch-sur-Alzette, Luxembourg.
Andrew E ClarkUniversity of Luxembourg, Esch-sur-Alzette, Luxembourg.
Jan-Emmanuel De NeveUniversity of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
Conchita D'AmbrosioUniversity of Luxembourg, Esch-sur-Alzette, Luxembourg.

Funding

Economic and Social Research Council ES/T014431/1European Research Council 856455Institute for Advanced Studies, University of Luxembourg DSEWELL
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Subjective wellbeing data are increasingly used across the social sciences. Yet, despite the widespread use of such data, the predictive power of approaches commonly used to model wellbeing is only limited. In response, we here use tree-based Machine Learning (ML) algorithms to provide a better understanding of respondents' self-reported wellbeing. We analyse representative samples of more than one million respondents from Germany, the UK, and the United States, using data from 2010 to 2018. We make three contributions. First, we show that ML algorithms can indeed yield better predictive performance than standard approaches, and establish an upper bound on the predictability of wellbeing scores with survey data. Second, we use ML to identify the key drivers of evaluative wellbeing. We show that the variables emphasised in the earlier intuition- and theory-based literature also appear in ML analyses. Third, we illustrate how ML can be used to make a judgement about functional forms, including the existence of satiation points in the effects of income and the U-shaped relationship between age and wellbeing.

Indexed as

Machine LearningAdolescentAdultAgedAlgorithmsFemaleGermanyHumansMaleMiddle AgedSelf ReportSurveys and QuestionnairesUnited KingdomUnited StatesYoung AdultMachine learningPrediction methodsSubjective wellbeing

Identifiers

PMID39794488
PMCPMC11723942

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.