Evidence map›Paper›PMID 39794470›Full record

ArticleScientific reports2025

Prediction of mortality risk in patients with severe community-acquired pneumonia in the intensive care unit using machine learning.

Jingjing Pan, Tao Guo, Haobo Kong, Wei Bu, Min Shao, Zhi Geng

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Scientific reports, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 14 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
14citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

14 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
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  13. Towards a holistic approach to pulmonary infections. Insights from the Sixth Annual Meeting of Spanish Experts 2024.Revista espanola de quimioterapia : publicacion oficial de la Sociedad Espanola de Quimioterapia · 2025
    Review
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

6 authors.

Jingjing Pan *Department of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, Anhui Chest Hospital, Hefei, China.
Tao Guo *Center for Biomedical Imaging, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei, China.
Haobo KongDepartment of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, Anhui Chest Hospital, Hefei, China.
Wei BuDepartment of Critical Care Medicine, The First Affiliated Hospital of Anhui Medical University, Hefei, China.
Min ShaoDepartment of Critical Care Medicine, The First Affiliated Hospital of Anhui Medical University, Hefei, China. shaomin@ahmu.edu.cn.
Zhi GengDepartment of Neurology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Anhui Medical University, Hefei, China. gengzhi2017@163.com.

Funding

Key Research and Development Program of Anhui Province 2022e07020039Postgraduate Innovation Research and Practice Program of Anhui Medical University YJS20230127 to Z.G.
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

The aim of this study was to develop and validate a machine learning-based mortality risk prediction model for patients with severe community-acquired pneumonia (SCAP) in the intensive care unit (ICU). We collected data from two centers as the development and external validation cohorts. Variables were screened using the Recursive Feature Elimination method. Five machine learning algorithms were used to build predictive models. Models were evaluated through nested cross-validation to select the best one. The model was interpreted using Shapley Additive Explanations. We selected the optimal model to generate the web calculator. A total of 23 predictive features were selected. The Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LightGBM) model had an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.842 (95% CI: 0.757-0.927), with an external 5-fold cross-validation average AUC of 0.842 ± 0.038, which was superior to the other models. External validation results also demonstrated good performance by the LightGBM model with an AUC of 0.856 (95% CI: 0.792-0.921). Based on this, we generated a web calculator by combining five high importance predictive factors. The LightGBM model was confirmed to be efficient and stable in predicting the mortality risk of patients with SCAP admitted to the ICU. The web calculator based on the LightGBM model can provide clinicians with a prognostic evaluation tool.

Indexed as

Community-Acquired InfectionsIntensive Care UnitsMachine LearningPneumoniaAgedArea Under CurveCommunity-Acquired PneumoniaFemaleHumansMaleMiddle AgedPrognosisRisk AssessmentRisk FactorsROC CurveIntensive care unitMachine learningMortality risk predictionSevere community-acquired pneumonia

Identifiers

PMID39794470
PMCPMC11723911

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.