Machine learning-based prediction model integrating ultrasound scores and clinical features for the progression to rheumatoid arthritis in patients with undifferentiated arthritis.

objectivesPredicting rheumatoid arthritis (RA) progression in undifferentiated arthritis (UA) patients remains a challenge. Traditional approaches combining clinical assessments and ultrasonography (US) often lack accuracy due to the complex interaction of clinical variables, and routine extensive US is impractical. Machine learning (ML) models, particularly those integrating the 18-joint ultrasound scoring system (US18), have shown potential to address these issues but remain underexplored. This study aims to evaluate ML models integrating US18 with clinical data to improve early identification of high-risk patients and support personalized treatment strategies.

methodsIn this prospective cohort, 432 UA patients were followed for 1 year to track progression to RA. Four ML algorithms and one deep learning model were developed using baseline clinical and US18 data. Comparative experiments on a testing cohort identified the optimal model. SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) analysis highlighted key variables, validated through an ablation experiment.

resultsOf the 432 patients, 152 (35.2%) progressed to the RA group, while 280 (64.8%) remained in the non-RA group. The Random Forest (RnFr) model demonstrated the highest accuracy and sensitivity. SHAP analysis identified joint counts at US18 Grade 2, total US18 score, and swollen joint count as the most influential variables. The ablation experiment confirmed the importance of US18 in enhancing early RA detection.

conclusionsIntegrating the US18 assessment with clinical data in an RnFr model significantly improves early detection of RA progression in UA patients, offering potential for earlier and more personalized treatments. Key Points • A machine learning model integrating clinical and ultrasound features effectively predicts rheumatoid arthritis progression in undifferentiated arthritis patients. • The 18-joint ultrasound scoring system (US18) enhances predictive accuracy, particularly when incorporated with clinical variables in a Random Forest model. • SHAP analysis underscores that joint severity levels in US18 contribute significantly to early identification of high-risk patients. • This study offers a feasible and efficient approach for clinical implementation, supporting more personalized and timely RA treatment strategies.