ArticlePNAS nexus2025
Improving future agricultural sustainability by optimizing crop distributions in China.
Article in PNAS nexus, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers.
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Who cites it
2 citing papers in PubMed.
- Sustained deoxygenation in global flowing waters under climate warming.Science advances · 2026Article
- Organic fertilizer-mediated assembly of rhizosphere core microbiota contributes to increased sugarcane productivity.Frontiers in plant science · 2025Article
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Authors and funding
7 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Improving agricultural sustainability is a global challenge, particularly for China's high-input and low-efficiency cropping systems with environmental tradeoffs. Although national strategies have been implemented to achieve Sustainable Development Goals in agriculture, the potential contributions of crop switching as a promising solution under varying future climate change are still under-explored. Here, we optimize cropping patterns spatially with the targets of enhancing agriculture production, reducing environmental burdens, and achieving sustainable fertilization across different climate scenarios. Compared with current cropping patterns, the optimal crop distributions under different climate scenarios consistently suggest allocating the planting areas of maize and rapeseed to the other crops (rice, wheat, soybean, peanut, and potato). Such crop switching can consequently increase crop production by 14.1%, with accompanying reductions in environmental impacts (8.2% for leached nitrogen and 24.0% for irrigation water use) across three representative Shared Socio-economic Pathways from 2020 to 2100. The sustainable fertilization rates vary from 148-173 kg N ha
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