ArticleBMC medical informatics and decision making2025
CT-based nomogram predicts esophageal gastric variceal bleeding in noncirrhotic portal hypertension caused by hepatic schistosomiasis.
Article in BMC medical informatics and decision making, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers.
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Who cites it
2 citing papers in PubMed.
- The Gastric Vein Variants: An Evidence-Based Systematic Review of Prevalence and Clinical Considerations.Journal of clinical medicine · 2025Review
- Portal vein hemodynamics measured by 4D flow MRI in predicting minimal hepatic encephalopathy in chronic hepatic schistosomiasis patients.Frontiers in medicine · 2025Article
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Authors and funding
6 authors.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundTo construct a nomogram combining CT varices vein evaluation and clinical laboratory tests for predicting the risk of esophageal gastric variceal bleeding (EGVB) in patients with noncirrhotic portal hypertension (NCPH).
methodsA total of 315 NCPH patients with non-EGVB and EGVB were retrospectively enrolled and randomly divided into training and testing cohorts. Thirteen collateral vessels were identified and evaluated after CT portal vein system reconstruction. Multivariate binary logistic regression analysis was used to choose CT images and clinical predictors of EGVB. The varices score of each patient was calculated. A nomogram was built by combining the varices score with the selected clinical predictors of EGVB. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to evaluate the predictive performance of the nomogram.
resultsPlatelet count and prothrombin time were selected as clinical predictors; the esophageal vein, gastroepiploic vein and omental vein were selected as CT image predictors for predicting EGVB. A reduced platelet count, prolonged prothrombin time, severe esophageal and gastroepiploic vein tortuosity and less omental vein tortuosity were predictors of EGVB in NCPH patients. The specificity, sensitivity, negative predictive value, positive predictive value and AUC of the ROC of the nomogram were 0.82, 0.81, 0.89, 0.70, and 0.88 (95% CI: 0.84-0.93) in the training cohort and 0.87, 0.86, 0.88, 0.84, and 0.91 (95% CI: 0.84-0.97) in the testing cohort, respectively.
conclusionsThe nomogram combining CT images and clinical predictors could be useful to individualize and predict the risk of EGVB in NCPH patients. CLINICAL RELEVANCE STATEMENT: Results showed that the nomogram combining CT-evaluated collateral vessels (varices score) and clinical laboratory tests could be used to realize personalized prediction of first-time EGVB in NCPH patients.
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