Evidence map›Paper›PMID 39762754›Full record

ArticleBMC emergency medicine2025

Predicting emergency department admissions using a machine-learning algorithm: a proof of concept with retrospective study.

Cyrielle Brossard, Christophe Goetz, Pierre Catoire, Lauriane Cipolat, Christophe Guyeux, Cédric Gil Jardine, Mahuna Akplogan, Laure Abensur Vuillaume

Abstract readMulticenter Study
In one paragraph

Article in BMC emergency medicine, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 7 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
7citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

7 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Perception and challenges of artificial intelligence (AI) in Emergency Medicine: A multi-country study in Sub-Saharan Africa.African journal of emergency medicine : Revue africaine de la medecine d'urgence · 2026
    Article
  2. Article
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  6. Review
  7. Evaluation of Large Language Models as Emergency Department Revisit Predictors.Pacific Symposium on Biocomputing. Pacific Symposium on Biocomputing · 2026
    Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

8 authors.

Cyrielle BrossardEmergency department, CHR Metz-Thionville, Metz, 57000, France.
Christophe GoetzClinical Research Support Unit, CHR Metz-Thionville, Metz, 57000, France.
Pierre CatoireEmergency department, CHU Bordeaux, Bordeaux, France.
Lauriane CipolatEmergency department, CHR Metz-Thionville, Metz, 57000, France.
Christophe GuyeuxInstitut Femto-ST, UMR 6174 CNRS, Université de Bourgogne Franche-Comté, Dijon, France.
Cédric Gil JardineEmergency department, CHU Bordeaux, Bordeaux, France.
Mahuna AkploganExtome, Research & Development Team, Paris, 75008, France.
Laure Abensur VuillaumeEmergency department, CHR Metz-Thionville, Metz, 57000, France. laure.abensur-vuillaume@chr-metz-thionville.fr.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

introductionOvercrowding in emergency departments (ED) is a major public health issue, leading to increased workload and exhaustion for the teams, resulting poor outcomes. It seems interesting to be able to predict the admissions of patients in the ED.

aimThe main objective of this study was to build and test a prediction tool for ED admissions using artificial intelligence.

methodsWe performed a retrospective multicenter study in two French ED from January 1st, 2010 to December 31st, 2019.We tested several machine learning algorithms and compared the results.

resultsThe arrival and departure times from the ED of 2 hospitals were collected from all consultations during the study period, then grouped into 87 600 one-hour slots. Through the development of two models (one for each location), we found that the XGBoost method with hyperparameter adaptations was the best, suggesting that the studied data could be predicted (mean absolute error) at 2.63 for Hospital 1 and 2.64 for Hospital 2).

conclusionsThis study ran the construction and validation of a powerful tool for predicting ED admissions in 2 French ED. This type of tool should be integrated into the overall organization of an ED, to optimize the resources of healthcare professionals.

Indexed as

Emergency Service, HospitalMachine LearningPatient AdmissionAlgorithmsCrowdingFemaleFranceHumansMaleMiddle AgedRetrospective StudiesArtificial intelligenceEmergency departmentOvercrowding

Identifiers

PMID39762754
PMCPMC11706136

What OpenQuestion holds

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LicenceCC BY-NC-ND
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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.