Evidence map›Paper›PMID 39762425›Full record

ArticleNature medicine2025

Prediction of checkpoint inhibitor immunotherapy efficacy for cancer using routine blood tests and clinical data.

Seong-Keun Yoo, Conall W Fitzgerald, Byuri Angela Cho, Bailey G Fitzgerald, Catherine Han, Elizabeth S Koh, Abhinav Pandey, Hannah Sfreddo, Fionnuala Crowley, Michelle Rudshteyn Korostin and 27 more

Registry-linked trialAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Nature medicine, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. It is linked to trial NCT07265661 (Surgical Timing After Preoperative Hypofractionated Radiotherapy for Patients With Primary Localized Soft Tissue Sarcoma of the Extremity and Trunk), which is not on this map. Cited by 100 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
100citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

NCT07265661 nanot yet recruitingnot on this mapstarted 2026, after this paper: background citation

Surgical Timing After Preoperative Hypofractionated Radiotherapy for Patients With Primary Localized Soft Tissue Sarcoma of the Extremity and Trunk: a Randomized Phase 2 Clinical Trial

TypeinterventionalSponsorItalian Sarcoma GroupRan2026 to 2035Enrolled142ConditionsSoft Tissue Sarcoma of the Trunk and ExtremitiesArmshypofractionated radiotherapy (30Gy/5 fractions) and surgical resection at 1-2 weeks after treatment, hypofractionated radiotherapy (30Gy/5 fractions) and surgical resection at 4-6 weeks after treatment
3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

100 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Trial
  3. Article
  4. Observational
  5. The immunology of human breast cancer.Nature reviews. Immunology · 2026
    Review
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40 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

37 authors.

Seong-Keun Yoo *Marc and Jennifer Lipschultz Precision Immunology Institute, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York, NY, USA.
Conall W Fitzgerald *Head and Neck Service, Department of Surgery, Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, New York, NY, USA.
Byuri Angela Cho *Marc and Jennifer Lipschultz Precision Immunology Institute, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York, NY, USA.
Bailey G Fitzgerald *Department of Medicine, Thoracic Oncology, Roswell Park Comprehensive Cancer Center, Buffalo, NY, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-5566-5953
Catherine HanHead and Neck Service, Department of Surgery, Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, New York, NY, USA.
Elizabeth S KohHead and Neck Service, Department of Surgery, Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, New York, NY, USA.
Abhinav PandeyHead and Neck Service, Department of Surgery, Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, New York, NY, USA.
Hannah SfreddoHead and Neck Service, Department of Surgery, Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, New York, NY, USA.
Fionnuala CrowleyDivision of Hematology and Medical Oncology, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York, NY, USA.
Michelle Rudshteyn KorostinDivision of Hematology and Medical Oncology, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York, NY, USA.
Neha DebnathInternal Medicine, Icahn School of Medicine, Mount Sinai Morningside and West, New York, NY, USA.
Yan LeyfmanInternal Medicine, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai South Nassau, Rockville Centre, NY, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-9331-1857
Cristina ValeroHead and Neck Service, Department of Surgery, Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, New York, NY, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-3397-2888
Mark LeeHead and Neck Service, Department of Surgery, Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, New York, NY, USA.
Joris L VosHead and Neck Service, Department of Surgery, Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, New York, NY, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-8318-5455
Andrew Sangho LeeHead and Neck Service, Department of Surgery, Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, New York, NY, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-2885-6316
Karena ZhaoHead and Neck Service, Department of Surgery, Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, New York, NY, USA.
Stanley LamHead and Neck Service, Department of Surgery, Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, New York, NY, USA.
Ezekiel OlumuyideMarc and Jennifer Lipschultz Precision Immunology Institute, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York, NY, USA.
Fengshen KuoDepartment of Surgery, Urology Service, Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, New York, NY, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-1797-2896
Eric A WilsonMarc and Jennifer Lipschultz Precision Immunology Institute, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York, NY, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-4104-1445
Pauline HamonMarc and Jennifer Lipschultz Precision Immunology Institute, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York, NY, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-6776-1635
Clotilde HennequinMarc and Jennifer Lipschultz Precision Immunology Institute, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York, NY, USA.
Miriam SaffernMarc and Jennifer Lipschultz Precision Immunology Institute, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York, NY, USA.
Lynda VuongDepartment of Surgery, Urology Service, Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, New York, NY, USA.
A Ari HakimiDepartment of Surgery, Urology Service, Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, New York, NY, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-0930-8824
Brian BrownMarc and Jennifer Lipschultz Precision Immunology Institute, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York, NY, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-3670-8778
Miriam MeradMarc and Jennifer Lipschultz Precision Immunology Institute, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York, NY, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-4481-7827
Sacha GnjaticMarc and Jennifer Lipschultz Precision Immunology Institute, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York, NY, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-5643-9520
Nina BhardwajMarc and Jennifer Lipschultz Precision Immunology Institute, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York, NY, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-1865-4187
Matthew D GalskyDivision of Hematology and Medical Oncology, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York, NY, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-7655-9378
Eric E SchadtPathos, New York, NY, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-7892-8808
Robert M SamsteinMarc and Jennifer Lipschultz Precision Immunology Institute, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York, NY, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-6860-2401
Thomas U MarronMarc and Jennifer Lipschultz Precision Immunology Institute, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York, NY, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-5903-8191
Mithat GönenDepartment of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, New York, NY, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-8683-8477
Luc G T MorrisHead and Neck Service, Department of Surgery, Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, New York, NY, USA. morrisl@mskcc.org.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-4417-2280
Diego ChowellMarc and Jennifer Lipschultz Precision Immunology Institute, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York, NY, USA. diego.chowell@mssm.edu.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-1355-5545

Funding

X-RAY CRYSTALLOGRAPHYP30CA008748 · NCI · SLOAN-KETTERING INSTITUTE FOR CANCER RES · PI Hongbiao Carl Lekaye · 1985 to 2026
$347.4M
THE TISCH CANCER INSTITUTE - CANCER CENTER SUPPORT GRANTP30CA196521 · NCI · ICAHN SCHOOL OF MEDICINE AT MOUNT SINAI · PI Ramon E Parsons · 2015 to 2026
$35.4M
High-Dimensional Immune Monitoring of NCI-Supported Immunotherapy TrialsU24CA224319 · NCI · ICAHN SCHOOL OF MEDICINE AT MOUNT SINAI · PI Sacha Gnjatic, Seunghee Kim-Schulze · 2017 to 2026
$21.5M
TRAINING PROGRAM IN CANCER THERAPYT32CA078207 · NCI · MOUNT SINAI SCHOOL OF MEDICINE OF NYU · PI James J Manfredi · 1999 to 2026
$11.6M
Spatial functional genomics to identify regulators of the tumor microenvironment and cancer immunityU01CA282114 · NCI · ICAHN SCHOOL OF MEDICINE AT MOUNT SINAI · PI Brian D Brown, MIRIAM MERAD · 2023 to 2026
$4.2M
Characterizing and predicting colitis in immune checkpoint blockade-treated cancer patientsU01DK124165 · NIDDK · ICAHN SCHOOL OF MEDICINE AT MOUNT SINAI · PI COLOMBEL, JEAN-FREDERIC, FAITH, JEREMIAH JAMES · 2020 to 2024
$2.9M
Identifying and targeting neoantigens in aggressive salivary carcinomasR01DE027738 · NIDCR · SLOAN-KETTERING INST CAN RESEARCH · PI CHAN, TIMOTHY AN-THY, HO, ALAN L. · 2018 to 2022
$2.8M
Immunogenetic determinants of cancer riskR01CA283469 · NCI · ICAHN SCHOOL OF MEDICINE AT MOUNT SINAI · PI Diego Chowell, Robert M Samstein · 2024 to 2026
$2.1M
NCI NIH HHS P30 CA008748NCI NIH HHS P30 CA196521NCI NIH HHS R01 CA283469NCI NIH HHS T32 CA078207NCI NIH HHS U01 CA282114NCI NIH HHS U24 CA224319NIDCR NIH HHS R01 DE027738NIDDK NIH HHS U01 DK124165
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Predicting whether a patient with cancer will benefit from immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) without resorting to advanced genomic or immunologic assays is an important clinical need. To address this, we developed and evaluated SCORPIO, a machine learning system that utilizes routine blood tests (complete blood count and comprehensive metabolic profile) alongside clinical characteristics from 9,745 ICI-treated patients across 21 cancer types. SCORPIO was trained on data from 1,628 patients across 17 cancer types from Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center. In two internal test sets comprising 2,511 patients across 19 cancer types, SCORPIO achieved median time-dependent area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC(t)) values of 0.763 and 0.759 for predicting overall survival at 6, 12, 18, 24 and 30 months, outperforming tumor mutational burden (TMB), which showed median AUC(t) values of 0.503 and 0.543. Additionally, SCORPIO demonstrated superior predictive performance for predicting clinical benefit (tumor response or prolonged stability), with AUC values of 0.714 and 0.641, compared to TMB (AUC = 0.546 and 0.573). External validation was performed using 10 global phase 3 trials (4,447 patients across 6 cancer types) and a real-world cohort from the Mount Sinai Health System (1,159 patients across 18 cancer types). In these external cohorts, SCORPIO maintained robust performance in predicting ICI outcomes, surpassing programmed death-ligand 1 immunostaining. These findings underscore SCORPIO's reliability and adaptability, highlighting its potential to predict patient outcomes with ICI therapy across diverse cancer types and healthcare settings.

Indexed as

Hematologic TestsImmune Checkpoint InhibitorsImmunotherapyNeoplasmsAgedArea Under CurveBiomarkers, TumorFemaleHumansMachine LearningMaleMiddle AgedMutationPrognosisROC CurveTreatment OutcomeBiomarkers, TumorImmune Checkpoint Inhibitors

Identifiers

PMID39762425
PMCPMC11922749

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Registered trials

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.