Evidence map›Paper›PMID 39754980›Full record

ArticleESMO open2025

Informative censoring in externally controlled clinical trials: a potential source of bias.

T Rudra Gupta, D E Schwartz, R Saha, P Y Wen, R Rahman, L Trippa

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in ESMO open, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
1citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

1 citing paper in PubMed.

  1. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

6 authors.

T Rudra GuptaDana-Farber Cancer Institute, Boston, USA; Harvard School of Public Health, Boston, USA. Electronic address: tulika@ds.dfci.harvard.edu.
D E SchwartzDana-Farber Cancer Institute, Boston, USA; Harvard School of Public Health, Boston, USA.
R SahaDana-Farber Cancer Institute, Boston, USA; Harvard School of Public Health, Boston, USA.
P Y WenDana-Farber Cancer Institute, Boston, USA; Harvard Medical School, Boston, USA.
R RahmanHarvard Medical School, Boston, USA; Brigham and Women's Hospital, Boston, USA.
L TrippaDana-Farber Cancer Institute, Boston, USA; Harvard School of Public Health, Boston, USA.

Funding

Training Grant in Quantitative Sciences for Cancer ResearchT32CA009337 · NCI · HARVARD UNIVERSITY (SCH OF PUBLIC HLTH) · PI QUACKENBUSH, JOHN, TRIPPA, LORENZO · 1986 to 2025
$12.3M
Statistical Methods and Validation Analyses for the Integration of External Data in Clinical TrialsR01LM013352 · NLM · DANA-FARBER CANCER INST · PI TRIPPA, LORENZO · 2021 to 2024
$1.5M
NCI NIH HHS T32 CA009337NLM NIH HHS R01 LM013352
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundCancer researchers frequently consider the use of single-arm and randomized controlled clinical trial designs that leverage external data. The literature has reported extensively on how the use of external data can introduce bias through a variety of distortion mechanisms. In this article, we focus on a distortion mechanism that is often overlooked: informative censoring. Informative censoring arises when there is statistical dependence between patients' censoring times and survival times. MATERIALS AND

methodsWe used simulations to investigate how informative censoring of external controls (ECs) can influence the results of cancer clinical trials. Our simulations included the following: (i) model-based replicates of clinical trials and in silico glioblastoma trials obtained by resampling patients from completed phase III trials; (ii) single-arm and randomized controlled cancer clinical trial designs; and (iii) different types of informative censoring, with positive or negative associations between censoring times and survival times.

resultsOur simulations showed that informative censoring of EC data can bias cancer clinical trial results. The direction of the bias depends on the censoring mechanism. Similarly, informative censoring can inflate or reduce type I error and power.

conclusionsSelection of EC data and the decision to leverage these data in the analysis of clinical trials should account for the risk of bias due to informative censoring. Analyses to detect informative censoring are recommended when the clinical trial design involves external data.

Indexed as

Randomized Controlled Trials as TopicBiasClinical Trials, Phase III as TopicComputer SimulationGlioblastomaHumansNeoplasmsResearch Designclinical trialsexternal control datainformative censoringsurvival analysis

Identifiers

PMID39754980
PMCPMC11758402

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.