Mathematical modeling of impacts of patient differences on renin-angiotensin system and applications to COVID-19 lung fibrosis outcomes.

Patient-specific premorbidity, age, and sex are significant heterogeneous factors that influence the severe manifestation of lung diseases, including COVID-19 fibrosis. The renin-angiotensin system (RAS) plays a prominent role in regulating the effects of these factors. Recent evidence shows patient-specific alterations of RAS peptide homeostasis concentrations with premorbidity and the expression level of angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) during COVID-19. However, conflicting evidence suggests decreases, increases, or no changes in RAS peptides after SARS-CoV-2 infection. A multiscale computational model was developed to quantify the systemic contribution of heterogeneous factors of RAS during COVID-19. Three submodels were connected-an agent-based model for in-host COVID-19 response in the lung tissue, a RAS dynamics model, and a fibrosis dynamics model to investigate the effects of patient-group-specific factors in the systemic alteration of RAS and collagen deposition in the lung. The model results indicated cell death due to inflammatory response as a major contributor to the reduction of ACE and ACE2. The model explained possible mechanisms for conflicting evidence of patient-group-specific changes in RAS peptides in previously published studies. RAS peptides decreased for all virtual patient groups with aging in both sexes. In contrast, large variations in the magnitude of reduction were observed between male and female virtual patients in the older and middle-aged groups. The patient-specific variations in homeostasis RAS peptide concentrations of SARS-CoV-2-negative patients affected the dynamics of RAS during infection. This model may find further applications in patient-specific calibrations of tissue models for acute and chronic lung diseases to develop personalized treatments.