ArticleBMC infectious diseases2025
Modeling COVID-19 dynamics in the Basque Country: characterizing population immunity profile from 2020 to 2022.
Article in BMC infectious diseases, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers.
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Who cites it
2 citing papers in PubMed.
- SEIRV epidemiological model for COVID 19 with Holling type II functional response.Scientific reports · 2026Article
- Studying Disease Reinfection Rates, Vaccine Efficacy, and the Timing of Vaccine Rollout in the Context of Infectious Diseases: A COVID-19 Case Study.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2025Article
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6 authors.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundCOVID-19, caused by SARS-CoV-2, has spread globally, presenting a significant public health challenge. Vaccination has played a critical role in reducing severe disease and deaths. However, the waning of immunity after vaccination and the emergence of immune-escape variants require the continuation of vaccination efforts, including booster doses, to maintain population immunity. This study models the dynamics of COVID-19 in the Basque Country, Spain, aiming to characterize the population's immunity profile and assess its impact on the severity of outbreaks from 2020 to 2022.
methodsA SIR/DS model was developed to analyze the interplay of virus-specific and vaccine-induced immunity. The model includes three levels of immunity, with boosting effects from reinfection and/or vaccination. It was validated using empirical daily case data from the Basque Country. The model tracks shifts in immunity status and their effects on disease dynamics over time.
resultsThe COVID-19 epidemic in the Basque Country progressed through three distinct phases, each shaped by dynamic interactions between virus transmission, public health interventions, and vaccination efforts. The initial phase was marked by a rapid surge in cases, followed by a decline due to strict public health measures, with a seroprevalence of
conclusionThe findings underscore the importance of continuous monitoring and adaptive public health strategies to mitigate the evolving epidemiological and immunological landscape of COVID-19. Dynamic interactions between immunity levels, reinfections, and vaccinations are critical in shaping outbreak severity and guiding evidence-based interventions.
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