Evidence map›Paper›PMID 39747882›Full record

ArticleNature communications2025

Development and validation of a real-time prediction model for acute kidney injury in hospitalized patients.

Yuhui Zhang, Damin Xu, Jianwei Gao, Ruiguo Wang, Kun Yan, Hong Liang, Juan Xu, Youlu Zhao, Xizi Zheng, Lingyi Xu and 14 more

Abstract readValidation Study
In one paragraph

Article in Nature communications, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 31 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
31citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

31 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

24 authors.

Yuhui Zhang *Renal Division, Peking University First Hospital, Beijing, China.ORCID 0000-0002-0761-4131
Damin Xu *Renal Division, Peking University First Hospital, Beijing, China.
Jianwei GaoArtificial Intelligence Institute, Digital Health China Technologies Co. Ltd, Beijing, China.
Ruiguo WangArtificial Intelligence Institute, Digital Health China Technologies Co. Ltd, Beijing, China.
Kun YanSchool of Computer Science, Peking University, Beijing, China.
Hong LiangSchool of Software and Microelectronics, Peking University, Beijing, China.
Juan XuArtificial Intelligence Institute, Digital Health China Technologies Co. Ltd, Beijing, China.
Youlu ZhaoRenal Division, Peking University First Hospital, Beijing, China.
Xizi ZhengRenal Division, Peking University First Hospital, Beijing, China.
Lingyi XuRenal Division, Peking University First Hospital, Beijing, China.
Jinwei WangRenal Division, Peking University First Hospital, Beijing, China.ORCID 0000-0003-0128-8408
Fude ZhouRenal Division, Peking University First Hospital, Beijing, China.
Guopeng ZhouInformation Department, Peking University First Hospital, Beijing, China.
Qingqing ZhouRenal Division, Peking University First Hospital, Beijing, China.
Zhao YangOffice of Academic Research, Peking University First Hospital, Beijing, China.
Xiaoli ChenRenal Division, Taiyuan Central Hospital, Taiyuan, China.
Yulan ShenRenal Division, Beijing Miyun District Hospital, Beijing, China.
Tianrong JiDepartment of Nephrology, The Second Affiliated Hospital of Harbin Medical University, Harbin, China.
Yunlin FengDepartment of Nephrology, Sichuan Provincial People's Hospital, Chengdu, China.
Ping WangNational Engineering Research Center for Software Engineering, Peking University, Beijing, China.ORCID 0000-0002-8854-2079
Jundong JiaoDepartment of Nephrology, The Second Affiliated Hospital of Harbin Medical University, Harbin, China. jiaojundong@163.com.ORCID 0000-0003-0049-1359
Li WangDepartment of Nephrology, Sichuan Provincial People's Hospital, Chengdu, China. scwangli62@163.com.ORCID 0000-0002-4204-3768
Jicheng LvRenal Division, Peking University First Hospital, Beijing, China. chenglv@263.net.ORCID 0000-0001-9238-9508
Li YangRenal Division, Peking University First Hospital, Beijing, China. li.yang@bjmu.edu.cn.ORCID 0000-0002-2528-5087

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Early prediction of acute kidney injury (AKI) may provide a crucial opportunity for AKI prevention. To date, no prediction model targeting AKI among general hospitalized patients in developing countries has been published. Here we show a simple, real-time, interpretable AKI prediction model for general hospitalized patients developed from a large tertiary hospital in China, which has been validated across five independent, geographically distinct, different tiered hospitals. The model containing 20 readily available variables demonstrates consistent, high levels of predictive discrimination in validation cohort, with AUCs for serum creatinine-based AKI and severe AKI within 48 h ranging from 0.74-0.85 and 0.83-0.90 for transported models and from 0.81-0.90 and 0.88-0.95 for refitted models, respectively. With optimal probability cutoffs, the refitted model could predict AKI at a median of 72 (24-198) hours in advance in internal validation, and 54-90 h in advance in external validation. Broad application of the model in the future may provide an effective, convenient and cost-effective approach for AKI prevention.

Indexed as

Acute Kidney InjuryCreatinineHospitalizationAdultAgedChinaFemaleHumansMaleMiddle AgedRisk FactorsTertiary Care CentersCreatinine

Identifiers

PMID39747882
PMCPMC11695981

What OpenQuestion holds

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LicenceCC BY-NC-ND
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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.