Evidence map›Paper›PMID 39747060›Full record

ArticleNature communications2025

Reducing transition costs towards carbon neutrality of China's coal power plants.

Rui Wang, Wenjia Cai, Ryna Yiyun Cui, Lin Huang, Weidong Ma, Binbin Qi, Jia Zhang, Jiang Bian, Haoran Li, Shihui Zhang and 7 more

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Nature communications, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 5 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
5citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

5 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
  2. Article
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  4. Review
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

17 authors.

Rui WangDepartment of Earth System Science, Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Institute for Global Change Studies, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China.ORCID http://orcid.org/0009-0000-0531-2474
Wenjia CaiDepartment of Earth System Science, Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Institute for Global Change Studies, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China. wcai@tsinghua.edu.cn.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-4436-512X
Ryna Yiyun CuiCenter for Global Sustainability, School of Public Policy, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-1186-8230
Lin HuangMicrosoft Research AI4Science, Beijing, China.
Weidong MaMicrosoft Research Asia, Beijing, China.
Binbin QiState Key Laboratory of Petroleum Resources and Prospecting, China University of Petroleum (Beijing), Beijing, China.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-0970-2442
Jia ZhangMicrosoft Research AI4Science, Beijing, China.
Jiang BianMicrosoft Research Asia, Beijing, China.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-9472-600X
Haoran LiChina Electric Power Planning & Engineering Institute, Beijing, China.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-9993-6842
Shihui ZhangDepartment of Earth System Science, Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Institute for Global Change Studies, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China.
Jianxiang ShenDepartment of Earth System Science, Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Institute for Global Change Studies, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China.
Xian ZhangThe Administrative Centre for China's Agenda 21, Ministry of Science and Technology, Beijing, China.
Jiutian ZhangGreen Development Institute, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-7566-4950
Wei LiDepartment of Earth System Science, Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Institute for Global Change Studies, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-2543-2558
Le YuDepartment of Earth System Science, Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Institute for Global Change Studies, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China.
Ning ZhangDepartment of Electrical Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-0366-4657
Can WangState Key Joint Laboratory of Environment Simulation and Pollution Control (SKLESPC), School of Environment, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-1136-792X

Funding

National Natural Science Foundation of China (National Science Foundation of China) 72348001National Natural Science Foundation of China (National Science Foundation of China) T2261129475
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

The same cumulative carbon emission reduction target can correspond to multiple emission reduction pathways. This study explores how different coal power transition pathways with the same cumulative emissions reductions impact the transition costs, by assessing the dynamic transition processes for coal plants adopting multiple mitigation technologies concurrently or sequentially, such as flexibility operation, biomass and coal co-firing, carbon capture and storage, and compulsory retirement. We develop a plant-level dynamic optimization model and apply it to China's 4200+ coal plants. We find that under deep decarbonization, the majority of Chinese coal plants retrofit with multiple technologies to reduce emissions and retire naturally at lower costs while contributing to grid stability. Optimizing the pathway can potentially save over 700 billion U.S. Dollars for achieving the same target or increase cumulative emissions reduction from 30% to 50% at no additional cost. This analysis can help inform a cost-effective coal phase-out under China's carbon neutrality.

Identifiers

PMID39747060
PMCPMC11697413

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.