ArticleEcology letters2024
Past and future effects of climate on the metapopulation dynamics of a Northeast Atlantic seabird across two centuries.
Article in Ecology letters, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 6 papers.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
6 citing papers in PubMed.
- Between-species contagion drives HPAI transmission and mass mortality in seabirds.The Journal of animal ecology · 2026Article
- Surveillance of Migratory Shorebirds and Seabirds in 2024 in Australia Reveals Incursions of a Diversity of Low Pathogenicity Avian Influenza Viruses, but Not High Pathogenicity Avian Influenza H5N1.Influenza and other respiratory viruses · 2026Article
- Signals From the Southern Edge: Demographic Effects of Ocean Warming on Two Cold-Adapted Seabird Species in the Gulf of Maine.Global change biology · 2026Article
- Highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1: history, current situation, and outlook.Journal of virology · 2025Review
- Insights Into Ecology, Evolution and Global Change Responses From Very Long-Term Studies.Ecology letters · 2025Article
- Past and future effects of climate on the metapopulation dynamics of a Northeast Atlantic seabird across two centuries.Ecology letters · 2024Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
7 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Forecasting population responses to rapidly changing marine ecosystems requires mechanistic models integrating complex demographic processes, fitted to long time series, across large spatial scales. We used a Bayesian metapopulation model fit to colony census data and climatic covariates spanning 1900-2100 for all Northeast Atlantic colonies of an exemplar seabird, the Northern gannet (Morus bassanus) to investigate metapopulation dynamics under two climate scenarios. Fecundity varied non-linearly with near-surface air temperature and recruitment was depressed by sea surface temperature. We predict regime changes in density dependence as marine carrying capacities become constrained with increasing SST. Sensitivity to climate change varied across space and time, disadvantaging southwestern colonies whilst benefitting northern ones. Such sensitivity is noteworthy for a species previously assumed robust to climate change. We provide a spatial overview of climate sensitivities across a metapopulation to help with evidence-based conservation management and open the way for similar mechanistic explorations for other colonial species.
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Registered trials
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