ArticleScientific reports2024
Tephra fallout hazard assessment for a hydrovolcanic eruptive scenario in Mayotte.
Article in Scientific reports, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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4 authors.
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Abstract
The new submarine volcano Fani Maoré offshore Mayotte (Comoros archipelago) discovered in 2019 has raised the awareness of a possible future eruption in Petite-Terre island, located on the same 60 km-long volcanic chain. In this context of a renewal of the volcanic activity, we present here the first volcanic hazard assessment in Mayotte, focusing on the potential reactivation of the Petite-Terre eruptive centers. Using the 2-D tephra dispersal model HAZMAP and the 1979 - 2021 meteorological ERA-5 database, we first identify single eruptive scenarios of various impacts for the population of Mayotte. Even when considering the least impacting scenario, we show that ~ 30,000 people could be threatened by a future explosive eruption in the highly densely populated island of Petite-Terre. We then use a Monte Carlo approach to sample a series of eruptive scenarios and produce a probabilistic map allowing a long-term vision of the tephra fallout hazard in Mayotte. Finally, we discuss the probability of the different eruptive scenarios based on new field data and show that both Mamoudzou (Grande-Terre) and Petite-Terre could be impacted by at least 5 to 40 cm of tephra. These crucial results will be included in Mayotte's first volcano emergency plan.
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