Evidence map›Paper›PMID 39737949›Full record

ArticleNature communications2024

Intensification of future subsurface marine heatwaves in an eddy-resolving model.

Xiuwen Guo, Yang Gao, Shaoqing Zhang, Wenju Cai, Deliang Chen, L Ruby Leung, Jakob Zscheischler, Luanne Thompson, Kristen Davis, Binglin Qu and 2 more

Abstract read
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in Nature communications, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
0citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

0 citing papers in PubMed.

No citing paper in PubMed yet.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

12 authors.

Xiuwen GuoFrontiers Science Center for Deep Ocean Multispheres and Earth System and Key Laboratory of Marine Environmental Science and Ecology, Ministry of Education, Ocean University of China, and Laoshan Laboratory, Qingdao, China.
Yang GaoFrontiers Science Center for Deep Ocean Multispheres and Earth System and Key Laboratory of Marine Environmental Science and Ecology, Ministry of Education, Ocean University of China, and Laoshan Laboratory, Qingdao, China. yanggao@ouc.edu.cn.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-6444-6544
Shaoqing ZhangFrontiers Science Center for Deep Ocean Multispheres and Earth System, and Key Laboratory of Physical Oceanography, Ministry of Education, the College of Oceanic and Atmospheric Sciences, Ocean University of China, and Laoshan Laboratory, Qingdao, China. szhang@ouc.edu.cn.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-6569-9842
Wenju CaiFrontiers Science Center for Deep Ocean Multispheres and Earth System, and Key Laboratory of Physical Oceanography, Ministry of Education, the College of Oceanic and Atmospheric Sciences, Ocean University of China, and Laoshan Laboratory, Qingdao, China.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-6520-0829
Deliang ChenDepartment of Earth Sciences, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-0288-5618
L Ruby LeungAtmospheric, Climate & Earth Sciences Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-3221-9467
Jakob ZscheischlerDepartment of Compound Environmental Risks, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research - UFZ, Leipzig, Germany.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-6045-1629
Luanne ThompsonSchool of Oceanography, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-8295-0533
Kristen DavisDepartment of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine, CA, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-8925-0433
Binglin QuFrontiers Science Center for Deep Ocean Multispheres and Earth System and Key Laboratory of Marine Environmental Science and Ecology, Ministry of Education, Ocean University of China, and Laoshan Laboratory, Qingdao, China.
Huiwang GaoFrontiers Science Center for Deep Ocean Multispheres and Earth System and Key Laboratory of Marine Environmental Science and Ecology, Ministry of Education, Ocean University of China, and Laoshan Laboratory, Qingdao, China.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-4274-0811
Lixin WuFrontiers Science Center for Deep Ocean Multispheres and Earth System, and Key Laboratory of Physical Oceanography, Ministry of Education, the College of Oceanic and Atmospheric Sciences, Ocean University of China, and Laoshan Laboratory, Qingdao, China.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-4694-5531

Funding

National Natural Science Foundation of China (National Science Foundation of China) 42361164616
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

A shift in depth range enables marine organisms to adapt to marine heatwaves (MHWs). Subsurface MHWs could limit this pathway, yet their response to climate warming remains unclear. Here, using an eddy-resolving Earth system model forced under a high emission scenario, we project a robust global increase in subsurface MHWs driven by rising subsurface mean temperatures and enhanced temperature variability. Historically, maximum MHW intensity occurs around 100 m depth, which shifts to the faster-warming surface under greenhouse warming. However, removing the long-term warming trend yields an increase in subsurface MHW intensity and annual days greater than that at the surface, especially in large marine ecosystem regions, primarily due to increased variability. Additionally, days of the surface and subsurface concurrent event increase ten times more than those of individual events. Our study highlights a heightened threat to marine organisms under global warming, as the increased subsurface heatwaves reduce their refuge options.

Identifiers

PMID39737949
PMCPMC11685619

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.