ArticleNature communications2024
Global mean sea level likely higher than present during the holocene.
Article in Nature communications, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 5 papers.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
5 citing papers in PubMed.
- Paleorecords inform the limits of Indo-Pacific coral reef survival under accelerating sea-level rise.Nature communications · 2026Article
- Separating tectonic and climate signals in Holocene sea-level records using marine terraces in central Chile.Scientific reports · 2026Article
- North American ice sheet persistence into past interglacials should inform future projections.Nature communications · 2026Review
- Article
- Ancient peat reveals that sea level surged rapidly twice at the end of the last ice age.Nature · 2025Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
6 authors.
Funding
Abstract
Global mean sea-level (GMSL) change can shed light on how the Earth system responds to warming. Glaciological evidence indicates that Earth's ice sheets retreated inland of early industrial (1850 CE) extents during the Holocene (11.7-0 ka), yet previous work suggests that Holocene GMSL never surpassed early industrial levels. We merge sea-level data with a glacial isostatic adjustment model ensemble and reconstructions of postglacial thermosteric sea-level and mountain glacier evolution to estimate Holocene GMSL and ice volume. We show it is likely (probability P = 0.75) GMSL exceeded early industrial levels after 7.5ka, reaching 0.24 m (-3.3 to 1.0 m, 90% credible interval) above present by 3.2ka; Antarctica was likely (P = 0.78) smaller than present after 7ka; GMSL rise by 2150 will very likely (P = 0.9) be the fastest in the last 5000 years; and by 2060, GMSL will as likely than not (P = 0.5) be the highest in 115,000 years.
Identifiers
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.