ArticleEcology letters2025
An Experimental Validation Test of Ecological Coexistence Theory to Forecast Extinction Under Rising Temperatures.
Article in Ecology letters, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 5 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
5 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Coexistence Theory for Microbial Ecology, and Vice Versa.Environmental microbiology · 2025Pooled it
- General Predictions for the Effects of Warming on Competition.Ecology letters · 2026Article
- Spatial clustering modifies competition in a diverse annual plant community.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2026Article
- Transgenerational effects increase the vulnerability of a host-parasitoid system to rising temperatures.The Journal of animal ecology · 2025Article
- Linking Individual Performance to Density-Dependent Population Dynamics to Understand Temperature-Mediated Genotype Coexistence.Ecology letters · 2025Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
1 author.
Funding
Abstract
Interactions between species pose considerable challenges for forecasting the response of ecological communities to global changes. Coexistence theory could address this challenge by defining the conditions species can or cannot persist alongside competitors. However, although coexistence theory is increasingly deployed for projections, these frameworks have rarely been subjected to critical multigenerational validation tests. Here, using a highly replicated mesocosm experiment, I directly test if the modern coexistence theory approach can predict time-to-extirpation in the face of rising temperatures within the context of competition from a heat-tolerant species. Competition hastened expiration and the modelled point of coexistence breakdown overlapped with mean observations under both steady temperature increases and with additional environmental stochasticity. That said, although the theory identified the interactive effect between the stressors, predictive precision was low even in this simplified system. Nonetheless, these results support the careful use of coexistence modelling for forecasts and understanding drivers of change.
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Registered trials
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